John Kelly Eye on Gaming Blog: EOG Sports Hour Breakdown and Best Bets

“The EOG Sports Hour” is three weeks old. The one-hour radio program — dedicated to the hearts and minds of sports bettors everywhere — is headed in the right direction with a few tweaks needed here and there to perfect the presentation.

Las Vegas-based handicapper Charles Jack once offered a valuable suggestion when asked for his single strongest piece of gambling advice. As many will recognize, “Charlie J’s” recommendation covers life, in general.

Jack counseled, “Be daring and undergo an honest self-evaluation.”

The vast majority of sports gamblers are too busy scouting players and coaches, tracking opening numbers and closing numbers, or simply too blind or ignorant (or in denial) to conduct a serious analysis of one’s handicapping knowledge and gambling skills.

Are you betting too many games? Or not enough games? Are you overbetting your bankroll? Or underbetting your edge? Do you rely too heavily on your math-based ratings? Or are you too reliant on your “feel” or intuition?

I’ll address these questions in a future blog entry, but right now I’ll use Jack’s words of wisdom to evaluate the first five shows in the history of “The EOG Sports Hour.”

The show debuted Monday, August 1 with yours truly and EOG editor-in-chief David Glisan serving as hosts. Legendary bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro served as the show’s first guest.

Here’s a brief rundown of the shows that featured Nevada bookmakers:

MONDAY, AUGUST 1

Glisan states the EOG radio assignment is the culmination of his journalistic career. His CFL pointspread record is 15-2 and he likes to play “unders.” Jimmy Vaccaro, named the most influential bookmaker in the past 20 years by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, predicts online poker will be legalized in the United States within the next 6-12 months. “Legalized sports betting needs everything to go well with poker and then online sports betting has a chance in the next 3-5 years,” said Vaccaro. He ended his commentary with a matter-of-fact statement: “The time is now.” The William Hill acquisition of Leroy’s, Lucky’s and Cal-Neva was discussed. William Hill handled $20 billion in race and sports wagers last year while the entire state of Nevada handled only $2.5 billion. Jimmy V. recommends gamblers separate their personal bankroll (the one used for living expenses) from their gambling bankroll. “Winning gamblers have balls,” said Vaccaro. “I don’t have any connections to the offshore sports betting industry but I respect the numbers posted at three operations: CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes.” Glisan offered his philosophy on sports betting, “The sport doesn’t matter, it’s the prices that matter.” Note to self on the subject of broadcasting: slow down and develop a smoother delivery (too choppy).

TUESDAY, AUGUST 2

Glisan says he has the digestive system of a dog and he can eat whenever he likes. He labeled Barack Obama “overwhelmed” and called Tiger Woods a “philanderer” in a game of “Word Association.” I listed some notable Northwestern University classmates, including New York Yankee manager Joe Girardi, actor David Schwimmer and Anucha Browne Sanders, the beneficiary of a $10 million settlement in a sexual harrassment lawsuit that named Madison Square Garden, the New York Knicks and Isiah Thomas as defendants. Bob Scucci, Director of race and sports book operations for the Nevada region of Boyd Gaming, was our featured guest. Scucci played baseball at USC, counting Mark McGwire and Randy Johnson as teammates. He revisited his high school rivalry with former MLB player Matt Williams. Scucci led his high school team (Basic High) to a Nevada state championship. Scucci cites the Internet and the “Information Age” as the biggest change or development in his sports gaming career. “If a gambler has inside information, he better act fast because everyone else will have the same information in less than five minutes,” said Scucci. The Orleans Hotel and Casino is the hub for Boyd Gaming race and sports book operations and Scucci oversees seven satellite locations and more than 100 employees. Scucci talked about “real” pointspread moves and “fake” pointspread moves. He talked about head-scratching results and dramatic form reversals in MAC football. Scucci admitted to being a bottom-line guy and he claimed every successful businessman is a bottom-line guy. Our featured guest predicted the Pirates would end the season with a winning record and the Cards would win the NL Central. Predictions aside, Scucci made a lot of winning points. Recipe for a successful radio show: recruit quality guests, ask probing questions and allow your interviewee the freedom to speak.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 3

Nick Bogdanovich of Cal-Neva was the featured guest. He oversees 31 betting outlets across the state with more than 125 employees under his direction. Nick views the charming city of Reno as Vegas the way it used to be. He likes the “old school” joints like Binion’s or Club Cal-Neva where “there are no day spas” or as David Glisan put it, “no deejays at the pool.” Bogdanovich spent more than nine years (November ’89 – June ’98) as the top man at Binion’s Sports Book where big-time poker players Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese, Stu Ungar and Billy Baxter bet serious money (through the use of poker chips) on football, basketball and baseball. Bogdanovich’s time at The Stratosphere was cut short by overbearing hotel owner Carl Icahn. Nick also relayed the unfortunate story about his time at Mandalay Bay (“they used me as the scapegoat”) and his dealings with Charles Barkley. Bogdanovich announced his time with Vegas Sports Masters, a tout service based in the East, would be ending soon.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 4

Mike Colbert, Director of Risk Management for Cantor Gaming, served as our guest. Insiders say Colbert performs best when dealing with customers and the media. Colbert truly is wise beyond his 31 years. His first gaming job was an entry-level position in the sports book at Caesars Palace in 2002. His mentor was Lou D’Amico. Colbert discussed Cantor Gaming’s philosophy of high volume. “We’ve built a big business really fast here at Cantor Gaming,” said Colbert. “And we have designs to generate half of Nevada’s sports book handle in 2012.” Colbert continued, “We’re not here to book against people or beat any individual customer. We’re here to write business.” Colbert cited Pinnacle Sports Book as an operation that “does business the right way.” Cantor Gaming owns Las Vegas Sports Consultants, employing four oddsmakers as holdovers from the old LVSC. Colbert mentioned summer intern Jeff Diamond as a “genius” when it comes to the math of gambling. Colbert promoted his football handicapping contest with an entry fee of $10,000 and answered a series of detailed questions from EOG contributor “Squarepants.” Colbert also discussed the mispricing of Cincinnati’s NFL regular-season win total. In a major gaffe, I failed to ask Colbert about Cantor’s in-running wagering. Dammit.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 5

Bert Osborne, a popular bookmaker in Las Vegas for the past quarter-century, served as the final guest of our opening week. Osborne is the sports book director at Michael Gaughan’s South Point Hotel & Casino. He arrived in Las Vegas in the spring of 1985, working for Robert “Muggsy” Muniz in the racebook at the old Barbary Coast. “We still take a bet here at South Point, but it’s not like the old days at Coast,” said Osborne. “No need to post numbers early. I’ll let somebody else be the superstar.” Osborne mentioned Pinnacle as the industry leader, but hailed 5Dimes as a sharp outfit. In Nevada, he recognized the Las Vegas Hilton and Cal-Neva as two properties with a solid set of numbers. Osborne projected no hotels will be built in Las Vegas over the next 10 years. In a trip down memory lane, Osborne recalled Super Bowl XXVI in early 1992 when Michael Gaughan simultaneously offered Washington -6.5 and Buffalo +7.5. The late Bob Stupak wagered a half-million dollars on both sides. ESPN’s Chad Millman reported the Barbary Coast and Gold Coast stood to lose $23 million if Washington won by exactly seven points (The Redskins won, 37-24). Osborne also discussed allowing players to lay -105 on Super Bowls in the late 1990s. Bert’s numbers at South Point are available at The Palms, Eastside Cannery and several other locations. Osborne talked about the discontinuation (“the numbers were declining every year”) of South Point’s high-end football handicapping contest. Great to hear from influential gambling personalities like Bert Osborne, who rarely grant media interviews.

MONDAY’S BEST BETS

I’m warming up in the WNBA. Check back later today in a thread titled “WNBA Winners” for selections from Tuesday’s attractive card. My break from MLB betting may have been the key to my sudden improvement in WNBA results. Let’s hope so.