Quotable Gambling Wisdom: Luck

“It is a good thing for an uneducated man to read books of quotations”
–Sir Winston Churchill

Churchill definitely hit the nail on the head with this line—one of his countless classic quotes. While I won’t go so far as to call myself ‘uneducated’ I’ve always loved quotes and have kept document files full of memorable ones on my computer for years. Some I keep because they’re funny, or proved to be historically prescient. This 1946 quote from Churchill falls into that category—he not only coined the term ‘Iron Curtain’ but in the accompanying speech laid out a frighteningly accurate blueprint for the geopolitical conflict of the next quarter century:

“From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic an iron curtain has descended across the Continent.”
Winston Churchill, Speech at Westminster College (MO) on 3/5/46.

Not surprisingly given my ‘career path’ and interests I have more quotes on gambling than any other subject. Even if you’re not predisposed to spend your leisure time reading thick books on probability theory, there’s a lot of sound gambling wisdom that you can get from quotes alone. In this recurring feature we’ll take a look at some of the better ones I’ve found about a central thematic concept. This time, we’ll look at the nature and meaning of ‘luck’.

LUCK BE A LADY TONIGHT:

Frank Loesser’s song from ‘Guys and Dolls’ became a signature number for Frank Sinatra and help popularize the personification of ‘luck’ as feminine:

“They call you lady luck
But there is room for doubt
At times you have a very un-lady-like way
Of running out”

The concept of luck isn’t exclusive to gamblers, of course, but especially for recreational players its very important. It’s why most high rises in Las Vegas don’t have a thirteenth floor—there’s no rational justification for omitting the number between 12 and 14 but it’s a concession to their customers and the competitive nature of the gambling business. No casino wants to lose customers just because they think their hotel is ‘unlucky’.

“It is especially in games of chance that the weakness of the human mind and its tendency toward superstition manifest themselves….And it is much the same for people’s behavior in all those areas of life where chance plays a role”
–Pierre Remond de Montmort (1713)

Any endeavor in life comes with an element of chance or risk. Some people walk across the street and consider it ‘lucky’ that they’re not run over. Others will consider the relatively few people killed in this manner and consider it a function of probability.

There are people who overvalue ‘luck’ in all areas of life, but even sharp gamblers I know make concessions to ‘chance’ that aren’t validated by any statistical or empirical rationale. One of the sharpest guys I know (both in gambling and in general) always waves off the blackjack dealer when it’s his turn to cut the deck. Ironically, one of the first things my dad taught me about playing blackjack in a casino was how to quickly and efficiently cut the deck as to expedite the game. The last time I was out gambling with my ‘cut adverse’ friend I asked him about it and oddly enough the rationale for him not doing it was the same as mine is for doing it: “it doesn’t impact your chance of winning so why not do it/let someone else do it” respectively.

I’ve spent my life trying to understand every permutation of profitable wagering strategy, line value, and mathematical probability theory and there are casinos I won’t play at because I consider them ‘unlucky’. When I occasionally play video poker I have other strange rituals in my choice of machine. This is very common among even the best gamblers. Ken Uston, who wrote ‘Million Dollar Blackjack’ and pioneered the use of ‘card counting’ did something similar:

“The next morning before leaving to play, I put on some Old Spice after-shave lotion. My next session was a dramatic winner. For the next several weeks I doused myself with lotion without fail before playing. If I went out the door and remembered that I’d forgotten the after-shave lotion, I’d return for it. Sure, we’re scientists, but I guess certain superstitions creep in periodically.”

Mike Caro, who has written countless great gambling books, had a similar observation:

“Many gamblers think they’re being singled out by fate as a target for cruel jokes. They feel they alone in all the universe are being tortured, experimented upon by some unknown force.”
–Mike Caro, Mike Caro on Gambling (1964)

Mario Puzo, a gambling enthusiast himself and the author of ‘The Godfather’ said essentially the same thing in a more spiritual context:

“With the perverse logic of the true degenerate gambler, he figured God was testing his faith.”
Mario Puzo, “Inside Las Vegas” (1976)

In the same book, Puzo suggested that for a gambler superstition may be conflated with paranoia:

“I’m naturally paranoid When I play cards with my kids I always cut the deck…All gamblers are paranoid, though they call it superstition.”
–Mario Puzo, “Inside Las Vegas” (1976)

Most gambling theorists suggest that it is the intersection between ‘luck’ and ‘probability’ where ‘squares’ and ‘sharps’ diverge. The late poker legend and 1973 World Series of Poker winner Puggy Pearson summed it up this way:

“Luck is always gonna break even. Everyone in the world is going to get the same amount of luck.”

basically, the distinction comes down to this quote I have in my collection without a source attributed:

“Luck doesn’t exist: probability does.”

That’s where we’ll begin in our next installment of Quotable Gambling Wisdom—probability and risk.