World Series Baseball Betting Picks for October 22, 2011

The 2011 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers shifts to Arlington, TX with the teams tied at a game apiece. I like a side and total play on the game. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (KYLE LOSHE) AT TEXAS RANGERS (MATT HARRISON) 5:05 PM PACIFIC

If you listened to our World Series previews on the EOG Sports Hour you heard our guests Palmtree and Tim Patterson completely nail the handicap of the first two games. Most impressively, they were solidly on the ‘Under’ in both games due to a confluence of factors including the matchup, umpires and weather. After a couple of easy wins for the ‘Under’ in two games where runs were tough to come by even the squarest of the squares is talking about how this series in ‘the year of the pitcher’ will be a low scoring affair with final scores more appropriate for English Premier League soccer.

Not so fast. In addition to a venue change to a hitter friendly Rangers Stadium in Arlington the teams are going from very brisk to chilly fall weather in St. Louis to warm temperatures in the Dallas Metroplex. The game time temperature will be right around 80 F with relatively low humidity for the area (45%) and light and variable winds.

Texas can hit the ball and particularly at home where they averaged a hefty 6.2 runs per game in Arlington. Not surprisingly, they went Over the total in 54 of 84 home games. A less widely known fact is that the Cards had a pretty significant Over bias away from Busch Stadium exceeding the total in 52 of 84 games. Some concern about St. Louis facing a lefty (just 4.4 runs per game) but Harrison isn’t an overwhelming southpaw.

In addition, no reason not to back the Cardinals here at a big moneyline price. Texas is a very good home team (56-30 +9.8 units) but the Cards actually made more money on the road (49-38 +12.1 units). Even with their impressive road profits there’s just no way to compare the current St. Louis team with the one that meandered aimlessly through most of the regular season. As Palmtree noted on the radio show the Cards have the best overall player, the best overall pitcher and the better manager. No disrespect to the Rangers and skipper Ron Washington, but this game is much closer than the price suggests.

Bet St. Louis Cardinals (Lohse) +175 over Texas Rangers (Harrison)
Bet St. Louis/Texas OV 9′ -105