College Football Betting Picks: South Carolina at Mississippi State

SEC action on Saturday’s college football card as the University of South Carolina and newly anointed starting quarterback Connor Shaw travel to Starkville, Mississippi to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Despite the well publicized struggles of the Gamecock offense and former starting quarterback Stephen Garcia South Carolina enters this game with a 5-1 SU record. Mississippi State has been erratic this season and is 3-3 SU.

SOUTH CAROLINA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE—OCTOBER 15, 2011 9:20 AM PACIFIC

This game opened with the Gamecocks a -5 road favorite and has been bet down to the current price of -3. Personally, I’m having trouble understanding the line movement. This is the first of three tough SEC road games for the Gamecocks but they have a bye week before playing at Tennessee on October 29. It could be a reaction to the controversial dismissal of Garcia, but even before he was kicked off the team it was evident that Connor Shaw would get the start here. Based on Shaw’s performance against Kentucky last week this fact certainly doesn’t obviate why the money is coming in on the home underdog.

At one point the SEC road wasn’t kind to South Carolina but that’s no longer the case. Since 2009 the Gamecocks are 7-4 ATS away from Columbia including 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. They’ve been a strong road chalk in this price range for awhile and are currently on a 8-2 ATS run as a road favorite of 3 or less. Meanwhile, this isn’t a good pointspread situation for the Bulldogs. Actually, the entire 2011 season has been a ‘bad pointspread situation’ for the Bulldogs and they limp into this game with a 1-5 record against the number. They’re 0-2 SU/ATS as a dog this year and have failed to cover their last two spots as a home of 3 or less dating back to 2009. They’re also 6-10 ATS getting points since 2009.

South Carolina has some insanely talented playmakers on the defense, and Mississippi State just doesn’t have the same explosive talent on offense. They’ll struggle to get anything against the Gamecocks’ stop unit. South Carolina’s offense sputtered with Garcia under center but they exploded for 54 points against Kentucky last week. With Garcia’s abysmal form this season the move to Connor is a definite upgrade. He may not have as strong of an arm as Garcia but he also doesn’t have many of his ‘downsides’–he’s a better decision maker, better at leveraging his talented supporting cast and not a player that ‘beats himself’. Shaw threw four touchdown passes against Kentucky including two to Alshon Jeffrey—arguably the best wide receiver in college football—who had only caught one in his previous five games.

Gamecocks’ defensive star Melvin Ingram has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for this game. South Carolina simply has the better talent on both sides of the ball and should come in with a ‘chip on their shoulder’ following the tumultuous week surrounding the program. Gamecocks win by double digits.

Bet South Carolina -3 over Mississippi State