CFL Football Betting Picks for October 10, 2011

The United States celebrates Columbus Day on October 10 but north of the border in Canada they’re celebrating Thanksgiving. Like their American counterparts, Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving with—among other things—football. Monday features a pair of CFL games and there’s a totals position I like on the early start time game.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES—OCTOBER 10, 2011 10:05 AM PACIFIC

The Montreal Alouettes are creatures of habit. What I mean by this is that they have a similar ‘M.O.’ every season—they start out strong, hit a rough patch midseason, but eventually recover to finish well heading into to the playoffs. The Als head into this matchup having won two straight and three of four. Most importantly, they’re as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is back in his usual groove and the Als are putting points on the board. Monday could be a historic day for the legendary Calvillo as he’s just 257 yards away from Damon Allen’s all time yardage record. Calvillo has downplayed that record, but it’s yet another goal in a season where many remain to be accomplished.

The same can’t be said for the Toronto Argonauts—they’re happy to get any tangible sign of progress. They’ve lost six straight road games and have won only three games total this season. They’ve got problems all over the field with an offense struggling to put points on the board and a defense ineffective at keeping opponents from scoring. Steven Jyles has struggled to find any consistency since becoming Toronto’s starting quarterback, but the team at this point really don’t have a good ‘Plan B’ having cut Cleo Lemon earlier this season.

Montreal opened a 14 point favorite in this game and based on recent meetings that was largely justified though it has been bet down to +12′ or +13. The last three games between the Argos and Als have seen Montreal win by double digits. Montreal has scored 36 or more in four of the last five games against Toronto and five of the last six meetings have gone Over the total.

There’s every reason to think this game will go over the total as well. If the Als play to their usual form in this series Toronto needs fewer than 20 points to send this one ‘Over’. The Argos’ offense has sputtered for much of the year but they’re facing a Montreal defense that has been porous all season long and particularly in the secondary. The combination of a good offense and not so good defense is why Montreal is Over in 9 of 14 games this year. Toronto has been a ‘punching bag’ for good teams in 2011 as 5 of their 6 games against opponents with winning records have gone ‘Over’. My numbers suggest this one will finish well into the 60′s and easily surpass the posted total.

Bet Montreal/Toronto Over 54