NFL Betting Picks for October 9, 2011

Big day of NFL football betting action with four plays—all in the early start time games.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS—10:00 AM PACIFIC

The Colts’ season is already a disaster but credit to the team for continuing to play hard. That might be enough to get them a victory against a struggling Kansas City team which just can’t generate any offense. The loss of Jamaal Charles for the season was a brutal setback for Kansas City and they simply lack playmakers on offense or, for that matter, a quarterback who is adept at ‘creating’ offense on his own. Another huge loss for the Chiefs was the departure of Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator—he may not be a great college coach but in that role he was very competent. Kansas City’s offense has flatlined since he left for the University of Florida. The big story so far in this NFL season—at least from a betting standpoint—has been the proliferation of offense and the huge bias toward the ‘Over’. I expect to see some corrections as the totals get higher and the defensive players get into ‘game shape’. This has the makings of a low scoring game with a final total in the 20′s.

Bet Kansas City/Indianapolis Under 38′

OAKLAND RAIDERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS—10:00 AM PACIFIC

Big ‘gut check’ game for the Raiders who can prove that the team has actually made progress this year. Game opened 7 and has been bet down to 5. In my view, there’s still value at anything over a FG. Raiders have arguably the best running back in the league in Darren McFadden and catch Houston in a classic ‘sandwich spot’ off a home win over Pittsburgh and with a trip to Baltimore to face the Ravens on deck. The death of longtime Raiders’ boss Al Davis on Saturday could produce a very emotional effort from Oakland. Houston is on a 5-11 ATS run in October, while the Raiders are 4-2 ATS as a road dog of +3′ to +7 since 2009. Oakland can win this outright but the points are a nice cushion.

Bet Oakland Raiders +5 over Houston Texans

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS—10:00 AM PACIFIC

Saints are the far superior team, but Carolina has responded to the swagger of quarterback Cam Newton and has become a dangerous ‘backdoor cover’ side. New Orleans 3-7 ATS in their last 10 spots as a road favorite and their defense has shown some liabilities this season. Saints also 4-8 ATS against divisional foes since 2009. Saints have a much more important game against Tampa Bay on deck and this could represent a flat spot. Panthers could potentially pull the upset, but with the points involved I’ll be happy if they trade points with New Orleans all day in a narrow loss.

Bet Carolina Panthers +6′ over New Orleans Saints

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS—10:00 AM PACIFIC

This is a play I gave out early in the week on the EOG radio show and at the time the Bengals were +2′ point road underdogs. They’re now -1 road favorites but in my view that still represents a value in a game they should win outright with relative ease. Cincinnati has the better defense and the better rookie quarterback. They’ll have a huge edge over a Jacksonville offense that has struggled to move the ball no matter who is under center—Jags have completed a league low 56 passes and rank dead last in total offense. That’s a problem since Cincinnati improbably has the #1 total defense in the NFL. Cedric Benson will play again this week while his suspension is under appeal and he’s got a competent backup in Bernard Scott.

Bet Cincinnati Bengals -1 over Jacksonville Jaguars