NFL Betting Picks for October 23, 2011

Week 7 NFL is upon us and I’ve got four plays on Sunday’s card.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS—OCTOBER 23, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Redskins getting no respect in this matchup, while in my view the market is getting ahead of where this Carolina Panthers team is really at. Cam Newton is an insane talent and makes the Panthers a ‘backdoor’ threat in any matchup. The problem here is that they actually have to win the game outright—something they’ve done only three times since the beginning of last season. Since the start of the 2010 season they’ve beaten Jacksonville this year and Arizona and San Francisco last year. At the time they played Carolina, these three teams combined for a record of 6-18 SU and 1-12 SU on the road. Washington has issues, but they’re a cut above the aforementioned three teams. Mike Shanahan is a first rate coach and in terms of game management, reading defenses, etc. Washington will have the best quarterback on the field. No doubt when all is said and done Newton will be a superstar but it’s important to keep in mind that he can’t engineer a backdoor cover here. The Redskins defense is underrated and they’ve got a solid rushing attack. They’ve dominated the Panthers in head to head play throughout franchise history, winning 7 of the last 9 games including four straight in Charlotte.

Bet Washington Redskins +2′ over Carolina Panthers

ATLANTA FALCONS AT DETROIT LIONS—OCTOBER 23, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Lions are a great story and a vastly improved team but they’re now in ‘uncharted waters’. How will they respond off of their first loss of the season? In the longterm, they’ll be fine—Jim Schwartz is a great coach and the Lions’ talent on both sides of the ball is legit. On the other hand, its not uncommon to see teams ‘letdown’ at the end of a winning streak. Obviously the Lions weren’t going to go 16-0 this year but in my view it’ll be tough for a young team to immediately regain their focus and intensity. From a standpoint of marketplace dynamics, its obvious that prices on Detroit will be ‘shaded’ against them going forward. That’s what happens when a team goes on a 13-1-1 ATS run including the preseason and dating back to last year. Falcons may have overachieved last year when they won 13 games but they’re a better team than they’ve shown so far. Atlanta’s success at home has given the impression that they’re not a capable road team but they’re 10-9 SU/11-8 ATS away from the Georgia Dome since 2009. More importantly here, they’re not playing on an ‘off surface’–this season they’re 0-3 ATS on the road but all three games were outdoors with two on grass surfaces. Atlanta is 17-6 SU/16-7 ATS in domes since 2009 and 18-8 SU/16-10 ATS on turf. Obviously this includes their home games but they’re a team built for the indoor game. TE Julio Jones is ‘out’ but the Falcons catch a break since Detroit running back Jahvid Best will miss. Detroit’s defense hasn’t been good at stopping the run so far—they’re ranked #26 in run defense. Granted, they’ve faced some good ones including Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte. Michael Turner may not be in their class, but to the extent that the Lions’ run defense is a liability he’s good enough to do damage. Despite their early season struggles the Falcons are still in decent shape—they play Indianapolis next week so a win here and against the Colts will have them right back in divisional contention when New Orleans comes to Atlanta on 11/13. In addition, the ‘Over’ looks good here—money has come in on the ‘Under’ which in my view assumes that the Lions’ defense is better than statistics indicate.

Bet Atlanta Falcons +4 over Detroit Lions
Bet Atlanta/Detroit Over 47

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS—OCTOBER 23, 2011 1:05 PM PACIFIC

I had some interest in the Chiefs when the line on the game jumped as high as +6 following the Carson Palmer trade but it has since settled at +3′. That’s probably the right price leaving no real value on the side. My interest is on the total. KC’s offense has been the beneficiary of some porous defenses in the last two weeks (28 points against Indy, 22 against Minnesota) but has otherwise failed to score more than 17 points. The public could incorrectly think that the offense is starting to ‘come together’ but things won’t come as easily against the Raiders Oakland’s defense isn’t great, but against a very limited Chiefs attack they don’t have to be. On the other side of the ball, Kyle Boller will likely play to his strengths and give star running back Darren McFadden a lot of work. This has been an ‘Under’ dominated series (5 of the L6 have failed to exceed the total) and the change to Boller plays right into that concept.

Bet Kansas City Chiefs/Oakland Raiders Under 41