The Major League Baseball postseason has been downright crazy so far with favored Philadelphia eliminated and the New York Yankees having a late inning meltdown. The American League Championship series gets underway in Texas on Saturday as the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers.


Justin Verlander is no doubt one of the best righthanders in baseball but his postseason and late regular season form has been decidedly ho-hum. Verlander has a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts though that does include the screwy ‘suspended’ Game 1 in which he pitched a single inning and allowed an earned run despite not allowing a hit. Nothing but respect for Verlander but in my view he’s overvalued here against a tough Texas team that may still be a bit ‘under the radar’. Detroit may also be overvalued since they beat the quintessential ‘public’ team, the New York Yankees.

CJ Wilson’s numbers may not be as impressive as Verlander’s (Wilson has a 3.94 home ERA) but the important thing is that when he’s been on the hill the Rangers have won games. Texas is 11-6 in Verlander’s home starts. Granted, the Tigers have gone 14-5 on the road when Verlander starts but there’s also a few ‘intangibles’ that has me on the home team. Detroit may be in something of a ‘letdown spot’ after that big Game 5 win at Yankee Stadium while Texas will be rested after dispatching the Tampa Bay Rays in workmanlike fashion.

The Tigers have been a good investment against LHP this year (+7.2 units of profit) but the Rangers have pulverized right handers to the tune of 71-44 +15.1 units. They’ve also put up beefy offensive numbers at home, averaging 6.1 runs per game. The road team looks to be a bit overpriced here against a solid Texas side that made a strong profit at home. The Rangers are the play at a value price.

Bet Texas Rangers (Wilson) +101 over Detroit Tigers (Verlander)

231 total views, 8 views today