PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (ROY OSWALT) AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (EDWIN JACKSON) 3:05 PM PACIFIC
This hasn’t been a great season for Roy Oswalt, but this does look like a ‘kill spot’ for the Phillies. It’s hard to envision a team that has been playing with such intensity and focus toward the playoffs all season long letting St. Louis off the hook here. Many of the concepts in this game are the same as yesterday starting with the Cards’ underachieving tendencies at home– St. Louis is a very disappointing 45-37 at Busch Stadium which represents not only the worst home field record of any playoff team but a loss of -8.3 units for bettors. Philadelphia on the other hand has made money on the road posting a 51-31 record for +95 units of profit.
St. Louis is obviously in a ‘must win’ scenario, but they’ve not been a team that has responded well to this type of pressure all season long. Look for Philadelphia to lower the boom on them and advance to the NLCS.
Bet Philadelphia Phillies (Oswalt) -115 over St. Louis Cardinals (Jackson)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (RANDY WOLF) AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (JOE SAUNDERS) 6:35 PM PACIFIC
Have the Milwaukee Brewers overcome their struggles on the road? For much of the season they had the biggest home/road disparity in baseball—they were nearly unbeatable at Miller Park but were huge money losers away from it. They did a better job winning away from home late in the year but much of that was a function of facing teams that had ‘quit on the season’. Even with their late season improvement, the Brewers lost money on the road this season going 39-43 for a -5.9 unit loss. They’re not only the playoff team with the worst road record but the only team in the 2011 postseason below .500 on the road.
That’s enough to put me on the plucky Diamondbacks who can make this a one game series with a victory. Arizona made bettors a ton of money in all settings this season (+25.8 units overall) but were very good at Chase Field going 53-31 +13.9 units. They were better against RHP than lefties, but there’s no reason to think they won’t exhibit the same scrappy play they have all season long. Arizona has been undervalued by the wagering public all season long and against a Milwaukee team that at best is mediocre on the road there’s no reason not to back the D-backs here.
Bet Arizona Diamondbacks (Saunders) -105 over Milwaukee Brewers (Wolf)
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