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NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots vs New York Jets

September 14, 2008

The market appeared to accurately discount the injury to Brady with the side spread, but appeared to over adjust for his absence (as well as the low scoring game last week) with the below 40 total they have priced in. Let’s not forget this is still an offense with plenty of playmakers catching the ball, a solid running game, and a cohesive line that can offset the inexperience they have behind center. Let’s also not forget that the Belichick is also the master at devising unexpected game plans. With everyone expecting the Patriots to utilize a conservative power running attack, a simplified passing attack, and throw their no-huddle schemes out the window, don’t be surprised to see the exact opposite. The Jets defense is a mediocre one that showed holes against dormant Dolphins passing attack. The Patriots should have no problem getting their share of points this week.

With attention all over Cassell, little attention has been placed on a Patriots defense that should regress this year, and has holes in the secondary to counter aggressive quarterbacks like Favre. Expect the Jets to try to turn this game into a shootout and put pressure on Cassell. They may have success implementing this strategy, as the Patriots have problems defending the deeper levels of the field.

Defensive touchdown? Both defenses will offer a lot of complex and aggressive schemes. Bellichick has given problems to Favre in the past, and may be more aggressive than ever knowing their defense will have to make a big play to boost their offense. Mangini will also be licking his chops and throw a lot of complex schemes at a quarterback making his first start out of high school. Such aggressiveness will lead to big play ability on both sides of the ball, which are favorable to the Over.

The market appears lost in discounting the total due to Brady’s injury. I think they over adjusted in this game, as underlying fundamentals still favor the Over.

Play: Over 39

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