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NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

November 2, 2008

Not only are the Dolphins one of the most underrated teams in the league, but I will go out on a limb and say they are one of the five best teams in the AFC. The Broncos on the other hand are a dangerous team to back, as it appears the market is fully aware of the potency of their offense, but not aware of the impotency of their defense. It is to no surprise that in my opinion, the Dolphins are the most undervalued team this week.

The Broncos defense is in shambles. Not only have they been struggling in defending the run and pass all season, but injuries to both Bailey’s leaves them with little leverage to improve in the second half of the season. Their run defense has been a huge target all season, as they have been unable to stop any ground game they have faced. They have shown no signs of improving, and their increased effort to contain the run has depreciated the value of their pass defense. It will be to no surprise that the Dolphins will come out running at a heavy rate and capitalize on this deficiency. Expect them to be able to dictate the tempo of this game with their effective running game that should keep the Broncos offense off the field, and also allow Pennington to work within his means, a role he has perfected this year. The Broncos pass defense has been getting progressively worse all season and now will be without their best corner. The Dolphins passing game has been getting progressively better, as Pennington is starting to build chemistry with his receivers. Expect a well balanced effort out of the Dolphins offense that puts the pressure on a depreciating Broncos offense to match points with.

Although the Broncos have one of the best offenses in the league, it is an offense that has quietly been getting progressively worse. Teams are starting to figure out ways to defend the passing attack and make Marshall less of a factor. The solid play of Allen coupled with constant double teams should limit his production and force Cutler to look elsewhere for success, something in which he has struggle accomplishing in recent weeks. The Dolphins pass defense is improving, and combined with one of the better run defenses in the league, gives them a decent defense to compliment their offense. Even with a well rested offense that is back to full strength, the Broncos offense may not do enough to offset their defense.

The Broncos have covered just one game all season which happened to be in week one. Simply put, the market is demanding too much out of them. This game is no different. The market is completely misdiagnosing this dangerous Dolphins team. In my opinion, they have a greater chance of winning this game than losing. Great value on the Dolphins.

Play: Dolphins +3.5

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