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NFL Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

November 2, 2008

Just when I though the market has finally caught up to the Ravens being a decent team, they finally are coming with value again this week, as a marketplace that has been dying for a “sexy” team like the Browns to get hot, have now jumped back on their bandwagon. This is when I will get back on board in backing a Ravens team that has lost just two games against the spread all season.

At the beginning of the season I said the Browns have one of the most overrated offenses in the league, while the Ravens have the best defense in the league. I still stand by both beliefs. Although the Ravens are starting to be riddled with injuries to their secondary, I don’t think an inconsistent passing game like the Browns can take advantage of it. Anderson has not hit stride yet this season, and the Ravens can counter the injuries to their secondary with exotic looks, blitzes and ability to pressure the quarterback, all three tools they used effectively in their first meeting this year against Anderson. The Browns can not rely on their running game to counter the possibility of Anderson putting forth one of his erratic games he has shown a few times this season, as the Ravens one defense is second to none. The Browns will also have trouble finishing off their better drives. They have struggled all season in the red zone, and facing one of the best red zone defenses in the league shouldn’t help matters.

The key to beating the Ravens is containing their underrated and improving running game, and force an inconsistent Flaco to beat them with his arm. However, the Browns simply do not posses a good enough run defense to accomplish such, and in fact, have an inferior run defense that will lead right into the Ravens implementing their game plan well. Expect the running back by committee to hit stride, and allow Flaco to work within his means. The Browns pass defense is also much worse than what shows up in the stats, as teams have not attacked their passing deficiencies due to being content to attacking their run defense. However, they possess an inferior secondary that is forced to play soft cover 2 that allow a first level passing game to be highly effective. This too will work right into the Ravens game plan, as they rarely attack the second and third level of the field, and will allow Flaco the ability to get the ball out early. Simply put, although the Ravens do not have one of the better offenses in the league, their offense strengths go hand in hand with the Browns weaknesses on defense. For this reason, they should be able to put forth one of their better offensive showings all season.

I bet against the Browns early in the season when the market was overrating them and had high expectations for them. When they played poorly, backers quickly stopped backing them, leaving little opportunity to go against them. Now that they have won some big games, early season backers are now back on their bandwagon- which provides an opportunity for me to once again fade this overrated team.

Play: Ravens +1.5

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