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NBC National Heads Up Poker ChampionshipHandicapping the National Heads-Up Poker Championship tournament


written March 3, 2010 By Jeff Haney

 
 

 

Handicapping the National Heads-Up Poker Championship tournament

 


For the past several years I have created odds (for amusement only) on the annual National Heads-Up Poker Championship in Las Vegas, which draws many of the game's top professionals. Executives with NBC Sports, tournament officials, and players competing in the event have directly cited my odds in interviews and public appearances in past years.


The 2010 National Heads-Up Poker Championship takes place this Friday through Sunday at Caesars Palace on the Strip. Coverage will air on NBC on six consecutive Sundays beginning April 18. The top prize is $500,000, with a total purse of $1.5 million.


Officials with NBC Sports and the National Heads-Up Poker Championship have permission to use these odds in any way for this year's event, on the condition they credit EOG.com.


Here's my rundown of odds to win this year's tournament, based largely on past performance in heads-up events and other tournaments, current form, reputation and intangibles, roughly in that order ...


Andy Bloch, 19-1: The runner-up to Chris Ferguson in the 2008 heads-up tourney, he also advanced to the quarterfinals in 2007 and battled the late Chip Reese in an epic heads-up clash at the conclusion of the 2006 World Series of Poker $50,000-entry HORSE tournament, in which he placed second. Bloch, who has two electrical engineering degrees from MIT and a law degree from Harvard, has studied heads-up poker as a science and has the results to show for it.


Chris Ferguson, 20-1: Has compiled a 16-4 record in his matches in the National Heads-Up Poker Championship, including the 2008 title and appearances in the final match in 2005 and 2006. He lost in the first round to Gabe Kaplan last year, however.

Huck Seed, 20-1: The event's defending champion brings a record of 18-4 in the heads-up tournament into this weekend's competition. In a poignant address to the crowd at Caesars after his victory last year, Seed spoke about how he turned his life around by overcoming a substance-abuse problem several years ago.


Phil Ivey, 23-1: Advanced to the semifinals in 2008, breaking a streak of three consecutive first-round exits in the heads-up tourney.


Daniel Negreanu, 23-1: A fearsome competitor who is continually refining his game.


Patrik Antonius, 24-1: Known as one of the game's top players in short-handed poker games.


Tom Dwan, 25-1: A regular in online "nosebleed stakes" cash games.


Phil Hellmuth, 25-1: The 2005 heads-up tourney champion.


Paul Wasicka, 25-1:� The 2007 heads-up tourney champion.


Johnny Chan, 27-1: Made a deep run in the 2009 World Series of Poker heads-up event, a $10,000-entry tournament.


Bertrand Grospellier, 31-1: Advanced to the semifinals of last year's event.


Ted Forrest, 31-1: Defeated Ferguson in the final match to win the 2006 heads-up title.


Vanessa Rousso, 32-1: Advanced to the final match in last year's heads-up event at Caesars, beating a murderer's row of Doyle Brunson, Ivey, Wasicka, Negreanu, and Grospellier before losing to Seed.


Barry Greenstein, 33-1.� Has a 9-5 record in his matches in this event.


Howard Lederer, 35-1. Enters heads-up play in top form, having made two final tables at the 2009 World Series of Poker Europe and having won the $10,000-entry HORSE tournament at the 2009 Festa al Lago at the Bellagio.


Allen Cunningham, 37-1: Considered one of the game's most talented players, he has underachieved in the heads-up event with a 2-4 record.

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Sam Farha, 39-1: Brings a solid track record in heads-up play into this year's event, having advanced to the semifinals last year and to the quarterfinals in 2006.


John Juanda, 40-1. His career live tournament winnings exceed $9.73 million.


Annette Obrestad, 40-1: The 2007 World Series of Poker Europe champ, she figures to employ a dangerous, hyper-aggressive style in her heads-up championship debut.


Jason Mercier, 45-1:� Has compiled $4.17 million in live tournament winnings in less than two years.


Eric Baldwin, 49-1: The reigning Card Player magazine Player of the Year.


Each 50-1: Gus Hansen, Erick Lindgren, Dario Minieri, Erik Seidel, Leo Wolpert.


Peter Eastgate, 54-1: The 2008 World Series of Poker main event champ.


Doyle Brunson, 55-1: Brunson acknowledged he might not be at the top of his game when he wrote in his blog this week, "The NBC Heads-Up Championship starts this Friday and I’m still debating if I want to play. Granted, I won’t be at my best, but I can put my game on auto-pilot and be competitive in that format."


Each 57-1: Greg Raymer, Scotty Nguyen.


Joe Cada, 58-1: The reigning World Series main event champ.


Each 60-1: Pieter de Korver, Antonio Esfandiari, Phil Gordon, Joe Hachem, Jesper Hougaard, Phil Laak, Mike Matusow, Brock Parker, Mike Sexton, Gavin Smith, David Williams.


Each 63-1: Jennifer Harman, Orel Hershiser, Gabe Kaplan, John-Paul Kelly, Greg Mueller.


-- Kaplan beat 1978 World Series of Poker champion Bobby Baldwin and 1979 winner Hal Fowler in $200,000 heads-up freeze-outs ... but that was back in 1980.


-- Hershiser had a nice run in the 2008 heads-up tourney, making the quarterfinals, but was knocked out in Round 1 last year.


Each 75-1: Annie Duke, Eli Elezra, Jamie Gold.


The field (all others), 4-1 combined: Don Cheadle, Chris Moneymaker, Darvin Moon, Dennis Phillips, Kara Scott, Jennifer Tilly, Jerry Yang, and the seven players who qualified via online or promotional satellites.

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