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John Kellys Weekend Blog
written March 21, 2010 by Jeff Haney
The NCAA mens basketball tournament is off to a rousing start. College basketball yesterday energized its fan base and introduced a legion of new followers to what veteran observers already know: March Madness is crazy good.
Closely-contested games and dramatic finishes marked the first full day of the three-week event. Five double-digit seeds advanced to the second round of the tournament as "parity," trite as it may sound, ruled the day.
Underdog players were rewarded handsomely. Underdogs were 10-5-1 against the closing numbers at The Mirage Sports Book. "Overs" slightly outnumbered "unders," 9-7.
After Friday's action, more than half the tournament will be complete (33 games played, 31 games remaining). By late Sunday night, more than 75% of the tourney will be over (49 games played, 15 games remaining).
I made four wagers yesterday, winning three of the four. My only mistake was Marquette's two-point loss to Washington. The NCAA tournament selection committee last Sunday eliminated several of my anticipated plays and severely limited my first-round action. The committee paired many teams I wanted to back (Northern Iowa/UNLV, St. Mary's/Richmond and Cornell/Temple), and several teams I wanted to fade (San Diego State/Tennessee, Wake Forest/Texas and Missouri/Clemson).
FRIDAY'S BEST BET.....Play GONZAGA +1.5 over Florida State. St. Mary's flattered Gonzaga and the rest of the West Coast Conference with an impressive performance 3,000 miles from home. Few against Hamilton is a coaching mismatch.
ONE MORE FRIDAY PLAY.....Take WOFFORD +10 over Wisconsin. The Terriers have won 13 straight games, and 19 of their past 20. They have not lost a game by double digits since early December. Wisky deserves favoritism, but the impost appears high.
SATURDAY'S BEST BET.....Unload on WASHINGTON in a Pick 'em game against New Mexico. This will serve as my BEST BET of the tournament. Quincy Pondexter is a slick offensive player who can score in a variety of ways. The versatile senior is a handful for one player to guard. Washington's other athletes (Overton, Turner, Bryan-Amaning, etc.) will pose problems for New Mexico's thin roster. The Lobos dress ten players, but only seven contribute. Bad sign for New Mexico: the Lobos allowed Montana to play its style of game. I also saw a sense of relief on the faces of several New Mexico players after the narrow first-round win. It appears New Mexico is playing to avoid a loss rather than going all-out for a win. Hear it now and believe it later, Washington will advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
ONE MORE SATURDAY PLAY.....Take Northern Iowa +11.5 over Kansas. Let's fade the #1 overall seed in the tournament. Kansas trailed Lehigh after the first and second media timeouts. KU did not assert its superiority until early in the second half. If Northern Iowa jumps to an early lead against KU, the Panthers should stay competitive for 40 minutes. Northern Iowa's Jordan Eglseder has the size to defend Kansas big man Cole Aldrich. UNI will relish the opportunity to play a high-profile team like Kansas. I foresee a dramatic finish.
TAKE TWO.....Las Vegas-based handicapper Barry Holthaus, hoping to make amends for a losing selection on "Winning Wednesdays," recommends a play today on Siena +4.5 over Purdue.
"This is Siena's third straight trip to the tournament," said the confident Holthaus. "The Saints knocked off Vanderbilt and Ohio State the past two years in the first round. Add a shaky Purdue team to the list of Siena victims."
Holthaus is in good form of late, hitting 13 of 17 selections during Championship Week.
ODU RULES.....EOG founder and dedicated Monarchs fan Ken Weitzer is on a roll. After ODU defeated Notre Dame, "The Shrink" moved to 48-32-2 from 82 selections heard on his Internet radio show titled "Winning Wednesdays." Today, "The Shrink" likes Purdue over Siena, going opposite Holthaus' selection. Weitzner also selected Utah State as a three-point underdog against Texas A&M.
SENDEK CAUGHT SLEEPING.....Jacksonville pulled off a major upset Tuesday night in the NIT, defeating Arizona State, 67-66. JU outscored ASU 18-6 in the game's final five minutes. The Dolphins, a 15-point underdog, claimed the improbable victory when Ben Smith hit a 25-foot jumper, off glass, with less than two seconds remaining in the game. After Smith's basket, ASU immediately inbounded the ball under its own basket, failing to get off a desperation shot at the buzzer. The game ended with the Sun Devils possessing four of their alloted five second-half timeouts. The crowd at Wells Fargo Arena was stunned.
Here's what happened in the game's final ten seconds: ASU point guard Derek Glasser, a 90% free-throw shooter, was on the line, shooting two, with the Sun Devils leading, 65-64. Nine seconds remained on the clock. Glasser made the first free throw, but missed the second. ASU led by two points, 66-64. Jacksonville's Ben Smith then raced upcourt and hit a dramatic three-pointer, which proved to be the game-winning basket.
Here's what should have happened in the game's final ten seconds: After Glasser missed the second of two free throws, he should have fouled the rebounder immediately. This strategy, though unconventional, is the proper move, given the time and score, and more importantly, the circumstances of the contest. A 15-point home favorite should never allow an opposing player, whose team is trailing by two points, to shoot a three-pointer for the win.
Serious gamblers will agree with this unorthodox strategy, while fans and analysts alike will question the move.
AN IDEA FOR DAVID STERN.....Either go dark for the first four days of the NCAA tournament or move your All-Star game to the Monday night following the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney. Comparing pro basketball to the college product at this time of year exposes the pointless routine of the NBA's 82-game schedule. Last night's pair of NBA games - Orlando v Miami and New Orleans v Denver - went virtually unnoticed by gamblers here in Las Vegas. The games did not feel inconsequential; they were inconsequential.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON.....Checking NCAA tournament team rosters, there are 14 players whose last names are Johnson. In no particular order, there's Elijah (Kansas), Orlando (UCSB), Anthony (Montana), Wesley (Syracuse), Noel (Clemson), Damian (Minnesota), Dominique (North Texas), De'Shaud (ETSU), Gene (Morgan State), Gary (Texas), Tim (Wofford), Steve (Duke), Russell (Robert Morris) and JaJuan (Purdue). Note: I did not include Darius Johnson-Odom (Marquette).
My favorite Johnson is 6'10" forward JaJuan Johnson, allowing me to say, "My johnson is bigger than your johnson!"
COMING MONDAY.....A preview of the Sweet Sixteen tournament games scheduled for Thursday, March 25 and Friday, March 26.
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