NBA: Thin-Slicing the NBA

November 3, 2005
by Michael Murray

In his best selling book "Blink", Malcolm Gladwell discussed the idea of "thin-slicing", and how experts routinely use this concept to make quick, informed, and accurate decisions.  The long, complicated definition (according to Wikipedia) of thin-slicing is:

  "The act of relegating the decision-making process to the adaptive unconscious by focusing on a small set of key variables, as opposed to consciously considering the situation as a whole over a much longer period of time. Thin slicing can also be done consciously. The main characteristic of thin slicing is that only a few key factors are considered in the decision process. Even if more information is available, it is classified as irrelevant and discarded. The idea of thin slicing challenges the commonly held belief that "more information is better" when making good decisions."

Betting on basketball forces a gambler to adopt a thin-slicing style of handicapping.  We typically have a week to make up our minds when looking at football games. Getting bogged down in the details of football is part of the fun.  In basketball, this isn't possible. The bettor typically has less than 12 hours to make a decision.  Losing sight of the forest for the trees will be a costly mistake.

Fortunately basketball lends itself well to the art of thin-slicing.  Dean Oliver, author of "Basketball on Paper", has written of the four key elements in a winning basketball team:

1) Effective Field Goal Percentage:  The NBA revolves around which team shoots bettor from the field.  In lower levels, other factors like ball handling, free throw shooting or rebounding takes on a bigger role. But the pro game is still about shooting the ball. Make sure you use effective field goal percentage to take the three-point shot into account. On a scale of 1-100%, the importance of eFG% is about 45%.

2) Turnover Rate: The number of possessions that end in turnovers.  Teams that take care of the ball, and force the other team into mistakes, tend to be more successful.  The turnover ratio is about 25% of what it takes to win in basketball.

3) Offensive Rebounding Rate: A good offensive rebounding team can make up for a squad that isn't a good shooting basketball team.  This makes up about 20% of a winning team.

4) Getting to the Free Throw Line: Teams that shoot more free throws are more successful than teams that don't force their opponents to commit fouls.  Importance ranking? 10%

 That's the extent of the homework needed.  A bettor will need to pay attention to injuries, the amount of rest each team has, and other variables, but the main work should be concentrated in determining which team will win the above four categories. 

How's it working this year?  Out of the 15 games played so far this year, the team with the higher eFG% has won 13.  The two that won the game while losing the eFG% battle (Milwaukee and Boston last night) both dominated the offensive boards and got the line more than their opponent.

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