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Tim Donaghy: OVER-whelming Evidence That The Fix Was In

August 1, 2007

How could an NBA referee this get away with allegedly betting on basketball games for two years? Well, one thing’s for certain. Basketball is probably the easiest major sport in which a fix can be made. You have a lot less players on the court (only 10) than in football or baseball. And one player in basketball has a lot more influence on the outcome than one player in the other two major sports. Just ask Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, or Dwayne Wade. They can literally lift an entire team on their shoulders. It’s also a sport that is so dependent on the referee’s whistle. Now, would it be easiest for a referee to control which team covers the spread (side) or the number of points scored in the game (total)? That depends on who you ask, but as an O/U “connoisseur”, I would definitely think that a Total would be easier to fix. A referee simply needs to start calling a lot more fouls (for an Over)…. Or a lot less fouls (for an Under). It’s a lot more difficult to dictate a Side. If someone gets injured or doesn’t show up or is having a terrible night or whatever, you can’t do it. Although some are claiming that you can favor the visiting team in a Side Play if you simply do this: Put the home team’s STAR player in early foul trouble. We’ll check how the visiting team did in Donaghy’s games in a minute. But let’s first take a look at the Totals.  Donaghy's over/under record during the time in question (depending on your line) was 79-51-2 (60.7 % “Over”). That breaks down to 35-25-1 O/U in the 2005/2006 season (59% “Over”)… and a more blatant 44-26-1 O/U in the 2006/20-07 season (63% “Over”).  He must have been in dire straights late in the year as he finished the recently-concluded 2007 season on a 14-4 O/U run (78% “Over”!) including 4-1 O/U in the NBA playoffs (80% “Over).

In the 2006/2007 season, here’s the OU breakdown by month:

OCT/NOV: 6-5 O/U
DECEMBER: 8-4 O/U (67%)
JANUARY: 6-5 O/U (54%)
FEBRUARY: 8-4 O/U (67%)
MARCH: 7-4 O/U (64%)
APRIL: 5-3 O/U (63%)
PLAYOFFS: 4-1 O/U (80%)

Any more revealing numbers in the 2006/2007 season? Perhaps from an ATS standpoint?

Check this out: Donaghy also went 41-28-2 ATS for ALL visiting teams in the 2006/2007 season. That’s an ATS winning percentage of almost 60% for the road team. The most notable instance of such an event was the Feb. 26 game between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat. In that game the Knicks were favored by 4 1/2 points and ended winning by six after New York went to the foul line 39 times to Miami’s eight. Shaquille O’Neal played only 23 minutes in that game and had five fouls. Remember what we said earlier about putting a star player in early foul trouble. Chances are if you played a PARLAY of the Visitor and the Over in all of his games, you also turned a very generous profit.

Now let’s take a look at some game time line adjustments. Oddsmakers will adjust the line if a large number of wagers or a large amount of money comes in on one side (or total) of a given game. If someone was fixing games, you’d likely see some significant line movement at the sportsbook. Interestingly, in games that Donaghy officiated last season which had adjustment in the pointspread before tip-off, the majority of these were covered by the team receiving the heavy betting action. Tim Donaghy was the ONLY referee to finish in the top six for point differential between the average closing total and average actual total in both of the last two seasons. Here are the numbers in a couple of charts for the top six refs in each of the last two seasons:

2006-07 Season
Referee Over/Under Closing Total Actual Total Differential
Joe Crawford 15-27-1  197.05  191.1  5.95 
Jim Clark 28-26  195.66  201.6  5.94 
Bennett Salvatore 41-32  196.37  201.2  5.23 
Tim Donaghy 44-26-2 196.26 201.2 4.94
Tommy Nunez Jr. 37-24  197.98  202.4  4.92 
Olandis Poole 37-20  196.53  201.4  4.87 
 

2005-06 Season
Referee Over/Under Closing Total Actual Total Differential
Derrick Stafford 50-23-1  194.24  200.9  6.66 
Bennie Adams 25-43  192.35  186.9  5.45 
David Guthrie 31-19  193.58  198.9  5.32 
Pat Fraher 36-22-1  193.6  198.8  5.20 
Eli Roe 33-17  192.72  197.7  4.98 
Tim Donaghy 36-30 192.14 196.8 4.66
 

Let’s do some more  Over / Under breakdowns from last season. First off is a review of his OU and ATS results based on the day of the week:

MONDAYS: Home teams went 5-6-1 ATS / OU: 7-5 (58% “Over”)
TUESDAYS: Home teams went 6-2 ATS / OU: 3-5 (38% “Over”)
WEDNESDAYS: Home teams went 3-11 ATS!  / OU: 12-3 (80% “Over”!)
THURSDAYS: Home teams went 1-0 ATS / OU: 0-0-1
FRIDAYS: Home teams went 8-6 ATS  / OU: 8-6 (57% “Over”)
SATURDAYS: Home teams went 5-7 ATS / OU: 7-5 (58% “Over”)
SUNDAYS: Home team went 0-9 ATS! / OU: 7-2 O/U (78% “Over”!)

Looks like Wednesdays and Sundays were the two days of the week in which you could really unload on a Donaghy game as Visiting teams went an amazing 20-3 ATS (87%) and the Over went 19-5 O/U (79%)!

How about a review of how your favorite team did in a Donaghy game? Was he “on” your local favorite or “against” it? Here’s a breakdown of how all NBA teams did in such a game from an ATS and OU standpoint in the last two seasons (67% or higher is underlined and bolded with results of two games or more):

ATLANTA: 2-4 ATS / 3-3 O/U
BOSTON: 4-2 ATS / 2-4 O/U
CHARLOTTE: 1-1 ATS / 1-1 O/U
CHICAGO: 1-0 ATS / 1-0 O/U
CLEVELAND: 2-1 ATS / 3-0 O/U
DALLAS: 2-2 ATS / 4-0 O/U
DENVER: 4-4 ATS / 5-3 O/U
DETROIT: 1-0-1 ATS / 1-1 O/U
GOLDEN ST: 4-3 ATS / 3-4 O/U
HOUSTON: 2-3 ATS / 3-2 O/U
INDIANA: 2-3-1 ATS / 4-2 O/U
LA CLIPPERS: 3-1 ATS / 2-2 O/U
LA LAKERS: 1-2 ATS / 2-1 O/U
MEMPHIS: 2-0 ATS / 1-1 O/U
MIAMI: 4-4 ATS / 4-4 O/U
MILWAUKEE: 0-3 ATS / 2-1 O/U
MINNESOTA: 3-0 ATS / 1-2 O/U
NEW JERSEY: 0-4 ATS / 2-2 O/U
NEW ORLEANS: 2-1 ATS / 3-0 O/U
NEW YORK: 4-2 ATS / 4-2 O/U
ORLANDO: 2-3 ATS / 3-2 O/U
PHILADELPHIA: 3-2 ATS / 2-4 O/U
PHOENIX: 1-1 ATS / 0-2 O/U
PORTLAND: 0-5 ATS / 4-1 O/U
SACRAMENTO: 2-3 ATS / 3-1-1 O/U
SAN ANTONIO: 3-3 ATS / 4-2 O/U
SEATTLE: 1-5-1 ATS / 3-4 O/U
TORONTO: 2-2 ATS / 3-1 O/U
UTAH: 0-5 ATS / 2-3 O/U
WASHINGTON: 2-3 ATS / 3-2 O/U

One final note or opinion from our author. If all Sports gaming was monitored and regulated by our government (like it is in other “civilized” countries), then it would have been a lot easier to catch up on Donaghy’s slight-of-hand. The compromising of ATS and OU results would have been detected much sooner and the appropriate measures would have been undertaken. It’s because we DON’T regulate sports gaming in this country that he was able to fall under the radar for two years. So in addition to blaming him and the unsavory elements of illegal wagering in the underworld, you must ALSO point the finger at our own government. Apparently, they don’t think that you are mature enough to handle legalized gaming. In an underhanded way, they tacked on last year’s Internet Gambling Bill on the back end of the Port Authority Act. And what one has to do with the other still confuses and frustrates this scribe. But there is something that YOU can do. First off, send an email to your State Senator and your local Congressperson. And study the House Resolutions that are currently in congress:

H.R. 2610 - 'To amend subchapter IV of chapter 53 of title 31, United States Code, and section 1084 of title 18 of such Code to clarify the applicability of such provisions to games of skill, and establish certain requirements with respect to such games, and for other purposes.' 4 (4 D)

H.R. 2607 - To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to regulate internet gambling.

H.R. 2140 - A study by the National Academy of Sciences to identify the proper response of the United States to the growth of Internet gambling.

H.R. 2046 - 'To amend title 31, United States Code, to provide for the licensing of Internet gambling facilities by the Director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and for other purposes.

H.R. 1170 - 'To address problem gambling.'

This is a free country, and you have the right to ask for the freedom to gamble online if you choose!
 

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