ATLANTA BRAVES (DEREK LOWE) AT CHICAGO CUBS (RANDY WELLS)
The Braves took care of business for us on Tuesday and we have no problem coming right back with them here. Atlanta has won six straight and 9 of 11 and need every win they can get to hang with the dominating Phillies. We never have a problem going against the Cubs at home and we’re able to do so with a quality team in this spot. Lowe has been sharp lately (2.65 ERA last three) while Wells has been very ‘hittable’ all season long. YTD Wells has a 5.84 ERA and he’s in the same range in all relevant situational breakdowns including his home ERA (5.47) and L3 game ERA (5.68). The Cubs have lost 9 of his 16 starts overall this season including 5 of 9 at Wrigley Field.
Bet Atlanta Braves (Lowe ) -135 over Chicago Cubs (Wells)
SAN DIEGO PADRES (TIM STAUFFER) AT SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (TIM LINCECUM)
San Diego gave us a scare last night as they blew a 5-0 lead over San Francisco but all was well that ends well as the Padres took the game with two runs in the top of the ninth to cash our ticket as a +130 road underdog. We’ll come right back with them here against the Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has been pitching well lately (0.83 ERA) but has been plagued by a lack of run support all year long. That’s why San Francisco is just 7-5 -0.8 units in his assignments at AT&T Park. Stauffer’s L3 ERA is skewed by a miserable outing against the Cincinnati Reds on August 13 (9 ER in 3 innings) but recovered to pitch well in his next start giving up 5 hits and 1 ER in 7 innings of work against Florida. The Giants have had trouble scoring runs in all settings this year and particularly at home where they’re averaging 2.8 runs per game. San Diego is +9.8 units on the road and an even more impressive +13.7 units against right handers away from Petco Park. The Giants are -7.6 units against RHP this year. Giants struggling mightily in the past few weeks and we’ll take the hard trying road team as a big underdog.
Bet San Diego Padres (Stauffer) +170 over San Francisco (Lincecum)
SEATTLE MARINERS (FELIX HERNANDEZ) AT CLEVELAND INDIANS (JOSH TOMLIN) 9:05 AM PACIFIC
Felix Hernandez has been a ‘darling’ of baseball bettors all year. We have nothing but respect for the guy and he’s by all means a solid pitcher but we’re thinking he’s overpriced here. His numbers are good, but not exactly dominating—3.38 ERA overall and 3.08 on the road. More importantly, the Mariners have lost money on the road when he starts posting a 7-9 record for -2.9 units. Seattle is a horrible road team (25-42 -12.2 units) while the Indians have made money at home (34-27 +6 units). Josh Tomlin in good form of late with a 3.15 ERA in his L3 starts. At home this year he’s got an ERA of 3.10 and the Indians have won 9 of his 12 assignments. Tribe need to win every game they can if they want to run down streaking Detroit and we see a lot more upside with them at a ‘pick’em’ price.
Bet Cleveland Indians (Tomlin) -105 over Seattle Mariners (Hernandez)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (LUKE HOCHEVAR) AT TORONTO BLUE JAYS (RICKY ROMERO)
Southpaw Romero has been pitching as well as anyone in the Major Leagues in the past couple of weeks—in his L3 starts he’s got a miniscule 1.12 ERA and has allowed only 7 hits in his last 24 innings of work. We’d rather not lay the big price so we’re hoping to accomplish the same thing by playing this game Under the total. 5 of the last 7 head to head meetings in Toronto have gone Under the total and KC is 11-22 against LHP this year. Some concern due to the fact that the Jays have given Romero good run support in his recent assignments but the 8 total looks a little high for a pitcher in his form.
Bet Kansas City/Toronto Under 8 -105
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