Milwaukee Brewers

As we noted earlier this week with the roster expanding to 40 players on September 1 we’ll have to reassess our strategy with a lot of teams going forward. For today we’ll go with one play that follows a premise that we’ve used frequently this year:

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (JAKE WESTBROOK) AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS (RANDY WOLF)

The St. Louis Cardinals may have won Tuesday’s series opener against the Brewers but we’re of the opinion that the Redbirds don’t have what it takes mentally to exert the kind of effort necessary to close the 9.5 game gap between them and the division leaders. Milwaukee continues to play well (7-3 L10) and have been the best home team in Major League Baseball this year. At Miller Park, the Brewers are 50-17 +30.8 units. They’ve brutalized right handed starters to the tune of 67-38 +26 units. The Cards are just 5-5 in their last 10 and have to know that their postseason hopes are slim and none—not only are they 9.5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central they’re 8.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the wild card standings. Milwaukee has dominated NL Central foes this season (+17.1 units) and have taken 5 of 7 from the Cards at Miller Park. Randy Wolf has been pitching well lately (2.57 ERA L3) and has been money in the bank at home this season—he’s got a 3.03 ERA at home and the Brewers have won 10 of his 13 starts (+6.5 units). With the Brewers crushing opponents at home and facing a rather pedestrian starter in Westbrook here we’ll back them at a very reasonable price.

Bet Milwaukee Brewers (Wolf) -135 over St. Louis Cardinals (Westbrook)

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