SAN DIEGO PADRES (CORY LUEBKE) AT NEW YORK METS (JON NIESE)
9:10 AM PACIFICEarly start time game and a good value opportunity to back the pitching strong Padres who enter this game having won 6 of 10. Cory Luebke has been very sharp away from Petco Park with a 1.87 ERA. San Diego has been a profitable road team all season long—after last night’s victory they’re +8.4 units away from home. The Mets, on the other end, enter this contest having lost 7 of 10 and have been a home field money burner all season long (25-31 -10.2 units). Jon Niese hasn’t been in great form lately (7.05 ERA L3) and that could help San Diego’s ‘Triple A offense’.
Bet San Diego Padres (Luebke) +115 over New York Mets (Niese)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (YOVANI GALLARDO) AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (CHRIS CARPENTER)
You’ll frequently hear me say that I’d rather ‘be on the freight train than in front of it’ and that definitely applies to the streaking Milwaukee Brewers. We’re still not impressed with their road performance this season but they have won 5 straight games away from Miller Park and are going for their second back to back road series sweep here. Brewers have won six straight, nine of ten and 13 of their last 14. If they start to perform on the road they’re going to be scary given that they’re the best home team in baseball (41-15 at Miller Park). Gallardo has been in great form of late (1.23 ERA L3 starts) and although Chris Carpenter has a decent 2.88 ERA at home the Cards have lost 6 of his 11 assignments at Busch Stadium for a -5.6 unit loss. Milwaukee has won 8 of 11 against St. Louis this season and since 2009 are 15-8 in the Gateway City. We’ll take the streaking Brewers and the formful Gallardo as underdogs.
Bet Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) +120 over St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter)
DETROIT TIGERS (JUSTIN VERLANDER) AT CLEVELAND INDIANS (FAUSTO CARMONA)
Justin Verlander is a good one, but there’s a ton of reasons to back the hometown Tribe in this matchup. Progressive Field has been a ‘chamber of horrors’ for the Tigers of late—they’ve now dropped 13 straight on the Indians’ home field. Justin Verlander has also struggled here during his career—in 13 career starts at Progressive Verlander is just 4-8 with a 6.31 ERA. Fausto Carmona has pitched well lately and a win here would cut the Tigers’ lead in the AL Central to one game. Can’t pass up the Tribe at this price.
Bet Cleveland Indians (Carmona) +170 over Detroit Tigers (Verlander)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (MARK BUEHRLE) AT BALTIMORE ORIOLES (CHRIS TILMAN)
This is the the game we talked about on the EOG radio show. White Sox have been profitable on the road (33-27 +11 units) and are coming off a weekend sweep of Minnesota. Orioles have lost 10 of their last 13 and have become one of the biggest overall money losers in baseball dropping -21 units on the season. Orioles just 11-24 -12 units against LHP this season and Buehrle has looked good lately with a 0.90 ERA in his L3 starts.
Bet Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) -120 over Baltimore Orioles (Tilman)
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