Think we’re going to pass up an opportunity to take the red hot Milwaukee Brewers—who by the way have the best home record in baseball—as home dogs? You ‘thunk’ correctly—nothing but respect for the Dodgers talented southpaw Kershaw but we have no problem stepping in against him here. Kershaw has pitched well lately (2.70 ERA L3 starts) but so has Brewers’ starter Estrada. His 4.67 L3 ERA isn’t really significant since he’s started only once since early May—that was 8/13 where he went 5 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates allowing only 1 hit and no runs. Kershaw has lost money on the road this year—Dodgers are just 6-6 -0.6 units in his starts away from Chavez Ravine and he’s got a 3.73 ERA. The most salient component of this handicap, however, is perhaps the simplest—Dodgers are 24-32 -5.9 units on the road (all records pending the outcome of Wednesday’s game) while the Brewers are 46-15 +26.8 units. Overall, Milwaukee has won 18 of their L20 and the Brew Crew has beat up on opponents with losing records this season—against sub .500 teams Milwaukee is 38-19 +14.8 units with most of the damage being done in the second half of the season where they’ve gone 18-4 +14 units against losing teams.
Bet Milwaukee Brewers (Estrada) +105 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (TIM LINCECUM) AT ATLANTA BRAVES (MIKE MINOR)
Giants got a win on Wednesday but haven’t been in particularly good form. It’s sure not reason enough to think they’ve ‘turned the corner’ and with their ace Tim Lincecum on the mound we get an opportunity to go against them as road favorites. Lincecum has pitched well lately with a 1.25 ERA in his last three games but has been plagued by shabby run support. That’s been the case for much of this season which is why he’s only 11-9 this year despite a 2.58 ERA. The Giants have scored only 7 runs for Lincecum in his last three starts. Braves need every win they can get if they’re to have any hope to catch the Phillies and they’ve been playing well of late. We’ll back the better team in better form as home dogs.
Bet Atlanta Braves (Minor) +120 over San Francisco Giants (Lincecum)
FLORIDA MARLINS (JAVIER VAZQUEZ) AT SAN DIEGO PADRES (TIM STAUFFER)
Marlins have made a nice profit on the road this year but are in woeful form at the moment having lost 11 of their last 13 games. Padres’ Tim Stauffer coming off a bad start at Cincinnati but he’s been pretty solid overall this season and has performed well at home where he’s posted a 2.64 ERA. Padres have lost money at Petco Park this year but have shown a profit in this price range—they’re 11-7 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. They’ve won all three meetings with the Marlins so far this year and we like the way the team has continued to play hard despite being well of the postseason pace.
Bet San Diego Padres (Stauffer) -130 over Florida Marlins (Vazquez)
CLEVELAND INDIANS (JUSTIN MASTERSON) AT CHICAGO WHITE SOX (PHILLIP HUMBER)
Pretty simple premise here—White Sox in good form of late and the Indians play much better at home. We respect Masterson but think that Phillip Humber will round into form as the season winds down. Pending the outcome of Wednesday’s game, Chicago has won 7 of 8 from Cleveland this year including all three at home.
Bet Chicago White Sox (Humber) +110 over Cleveland Indians (Masterson)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (RICKY ROMERO) AT OAKLAND A’S (TREVOR CAHILL)
Ricky Romero is pitching as well as any southpaw in baseball at the moment with a 1.57 ERA in his last three assignments. Toronto has been profitable on the road this year (+5.4 units pending Wednesday’s result) while Oakland has lost a ton of money for their financial backers this season. They’re better at home, but still in the red for the year. At a pick’em price we’ll take the sizzling Romero. Cahill has struggled of late (6.75 ERA L3) and hasn’t been a good investment at home—the A’s are 5-8 -4.7 units when he starts despite his tidy 2.62 home ERA.
Bet Toronto Blue Jays (Romero) +100 over Oakland A’s (Cahill)
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