ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (EDWIN JACKSON) AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS (RANDY WOLF) 11:10 AM PACIFIC
Edwin Jackson has been in very good form lately (1.23 ERA L3) but Randy Wolf has also pitched well (2.21 ERA L3) and the Brewers have won 7 of his 10 home starts. Teams have split the first two games of the series but it’s been exceptionally easy to handicap the Brewers this year—they’ve been good at home and bad on the road. They’re 40-15 +20.6 units at home but a woeful 21-35 on the road. Cards have made a small profit on the road but we have a hard time fading the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Bet Milwaukee Brewers (Wolf) -120 over St. Louis Cardinals (Jackson)
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (JASON MARQUIS) AT SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (RYAN VOGELSONG) 12:45 PM PACIFIC
Diamondbacks have won four straight and nine of twelve, Giants have lost five straight. Ryan Vogelsong is arguably the most underrated pitcher on the Giants stellar pitching staff but San Francisco is a very weak hitting team and could struggle against newly acquired Jason Marquis. D-Backs +12.3 units on the road this season.
Bet Arizona Diamondbacks (Marquis) +135 over San Francisco Giants (Vogelsong)
FLORIDA MARLINS (CLAY HENSLEY) AT NEW YORK METS (DILLON GEE)
Both teams have been on an uptick lately but YTD the Mets have lost money at home (22-28 -9.4 units) while the Florida Marlins have been profitable on the road (31-23 +13.5 units). As we discussed on the EOG Sports Hour last night the Marlins have been in excellent form since their brutal slump in June. In June, Florida was a brutal 5-13. Factoring out their ‘June swoon’ the Marlins are 50-32 on the year. The team has really responded to Jack McKeon—since July 1 the Marlins are 19-10 overall with an exceptional 12-4 record on the road. They’ve had no trouble with the Mets this season going 7-3 +3.3 units overall and a perfect 4-0 +4.3 units at CitiField.
Bet Florida Marlins (Hensley) +125 over New York Mets (Gee)
CINCINNATI REDS (DONTRELLE WILLIS) AT HOUSTON ASTROS (JORDAN LYLES)
The Houston Astros actually have a small profit of 0.7 units against left handed pitching but that’s not any reason to back the pitiful home team. Houston is 18-37 -18.8 units at home and -30.4 units overall. That’s pretty much all we need to know to oppose the Astros at a decent price. Reds have taken 7 of 11 from Houston this season.
Bet Cincinnati Reds (Willis) -122 over Houston Astros (Lyles)
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