NEW YORK METS (DILLON GEE) AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS (CHIEN MING WANG)
Coming off a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds the road loving (+15.9 units) Mets head to the nation’s capital to take on the slumping Washington Nationals. Mets have won 7 of their last 10 while the Nats have dropped 8 of 10. Dillon Gee doesn’t have great numbers on the year but has dominated the Nats throughout his brief career (2-0 0.61 ERA) and will face journeyman Chien Ming Wang making his first start of the season. Mets have taken 5 of 8 from the Nationals this season and given the disparate form of the teams we’ll stay on the visitors here.
Bet New York Mets (Gee) -115 over Cincinnati Reds (Wang)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (KENT VOGELSONG) AT CINCINNATI REDS (DONTRELLE WILLIS)
We picked on the dysfunctional Reds throughout their previous series with the Mets and we’ll continue that profitable concept here. This game sets up perfectly for us with Kent Vogelsong taking the mound. He doesn’t have the ‘rep’ among the public that teammate Tim Lincecum does but his numbers have been equally impressive—2.20 ERA with the Giants winning 11 of his 16 starts. His L3 ERA has been even stronger (1.93 ERA) and will face Dontrelle Willis here who has been decidedly mediocre since joining the Cincy rotation. Reds now -9.6 units at home this year and to put a big cherry on the top of this play the Giants have made a nice profit against southpaws this season—San Francisco 20=8 +11.8 units against LHP this season.
Bet San Francisco Giants (Vogelsong) +100 over Cincinnati (Willis)
FLORIDA MARLINS (CLAY HENSLEY) AT ATLANTA BRAVES (BRANDON BEACHY)
Marlins have been a very pesky team since Jack McKeon took the reins and we like the way they matchup against Atlanta in this series. Marlins have made a nice profit on the road this year despite their brutal slump of earlier this season (+13 units) and Hensley has been lights out since returning to the starting rotation with a 1.80 ERA and Marlins’ wins in both assignments. We like Brandon Beachy but we’d rather be on a Florida team that has always given the Braves fits at Turner Field.
>ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (JOSH COLLMENTER) AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (TED LILLY)
We used Arizona against San Diego in their previous series and no reason to change course as they head up I-5 to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Arizona has been very profitable on the road (+8.2 units) and overall (+11.5 units) while the Dodgers are a train wreck overall (-14.4 units) and especially against RHP (-12.2 units). Los Angeles has lost money (-8 units) at Chavez Ravine this year and veteran LHP Ted Lilly hasn’t look the least bit sharp. Josh Collmenter on the other hand has a 1.29 ERA in his L3 starts.
Bet Arizona Diamondbacks (Collmenter) -115 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Lilly)
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (TYLER CHATWOOD) AT DETROIT TIGERS (RICK PORCELLO)
Great value on the LA Angels who are in good form at the moment (7-3 L10) and have been profitable away from Anaheim all season long. Halos +5.6 units on the road and took the first game of the series on Thursday. Tigers are typically a good home team but are just 5-5 L10 overall and have a small loss (-0.8 units) at home this season. Tyler Chatwood has pitched well on the road this year and the Angels have won six of his eight away assignments. Rick Porcello has pitched well of late but YTD he’s got a 6.15 ERA at home. We’ll take the more formful team and better pitcher at an underdog price.
Bet Los Angeles Angels (Chatwood) +130 over Detroit Tigers (Porcello)
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