Busy day of baseball betting action on Tuesday with all eight teams in action. Of the two games in the National League, no real interest in the Brewers/Diamondbacks game—lean to the D-Backs there due to Milwaukee’s home/away disparity but that wasn’t as pronounced in the final month or two of the season. The focus in this writeup will be on the other NL game between St. Louis and Philadelphia.


The Cards managed to steal a win in Philadelphia, but that sure doesn’t strike me as a ‘sell’ sign for the Phillies or a ‘buy’ sign for St. Louis. There’s every reason to expect Philadelphia to take care of business in this spot and put the Cards on the brink of elimination. St. Louis was a very disappointing home team all season long—45-36 at Busch Stadium represents not only the worst home field record of any playoff team but resulted in a loss of -7.3 units for their financial backers. Philadelphia, meanwhile, was very efficient away from home posting a 50-31 record for +8.5 units of profit.

A couple of excellent lefthanders get the start today—Cole Hamels was good all season long and Jamie Garcia really started to get into gear late in the season. The situational pitching matchup appears to favor Philadelphia, however, as they made money against southpaws (30-14 +8.4 units) while the Cardinals lost money (20-20 -5.6 units). Phillies were great in this price range during the regular season going 16-8 +6.4 units as a road favorite of -125 to -150.

As befitting a team that I branded as having a ‘lack of urgency’ all season long, St. Louis didn’t fare well after a win during the regular season—Cards went 49-42 -5.4 units after a win while Philadelphia responded to losing like you’d expect a championship team to do going 40-20 +8 units after a loss. The sum total of this matchup is that Philadelphia is the vastly superior team and one that is likely to do what they need to do in this situation.

Bet Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) -130 over St. Louis Cardinals (Garcia)

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