The Cincinnati Bengals are off a disappointing loss to the San Francisco 49ers while the Buffalo Bills are 3-0 after an upset win over New England. Can Buffalo keep their improbable undefeated start going as they travel to Cincy for a game this Sunday?

BUFFALO BILLS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS OCTOBER 1, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

The Bills are all of a sudden one of the darlings of the NFL and to be sure there’s a lot to like. I’ve talked about how I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be a superstar quarterback since the start of the season and he’s made me look like a genius with his performance on the field. That being said, you have to think that the linesmakers and public are getting a bit ahead of themselves here.

The Cincinnati Bengals may only be 1-2 SU but they’re not that bad of a team. They have a decent defense and a competent running game. Cedric Benson has appealed his suspension and is expected to play here and he’s got a highly underrated backup in Bernard Scott playing behind him. Quarterback Andy Dalton has made some rookie mistakes, but he’s also shown considerable promise—he’s put up a quarterback rating of 100+ in two of his three starts.

Buffalo is in a very tough ‘sandwich’ scheduling spot—you have to think there will be some letdown off of that huge win over New England on Sunday and they’ve got another big home game on deck against the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s a lot to ask of a young team for them to go out on the road and win a game against a team that provides no intrinsic motivation, and particularly in the unfamiliar role as a road favorite.

If you’re a contrarian you already like Cincinnati in this spot based on the public support for Buffalo. As of 6:00 PM Pacific on Thursday 83% of the betting action reported on the Sports Option lines feed has come in on the Bills. The line is -3 with a moneyline everywhere and if that one sided action holds up this game could go to -3′ which would make the home underdog an even better play.

Cincinnati has been very profitable in similar spots—they’re 15-8 ATS as an underdog since 2009 and dating back to 2008 they’re on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog. As a home dog in this price range (+3 or less) they’re 5-1 SU and ATS since 2009. Some interest in the Under 44 but there’s every reason to think that the Bengals will compete throughout here and given the Bills tough scheduling spot don’t be surprised to see Cincinnati win this one outright.

Bet Cincinnati Bengals +3 +100 over Buffalo Bills

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