Qwest Field Big NFL Week 12 card on Sunday—I’ll run through every game with a quick analysis. Six plays in all.

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT ST. LOUIS RAMS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Brutal matchup between the erratic Cardinals and inept Rams. In theory, I like the road underdog here—Rams’ offense is horrendous ranked dead last in the NFL averaging just over 12 PPG. In other words, St. Louis’ sputtering offense will negate the Cardinals defensive liabilities. Arizona not a good road team in recent years (5-12 ATS) but they’ve won six straight outright in St. Louis. Better value elsewhere, but my lean is to Arizona.

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW YORK JETS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

It wasn’t long ago that the Bills were riding high and were one of my personal favorite ‘play on’ teams. Since then they’ve struggled due to injury and bad play. Their defense has been particularly bad and the Bills are without cornerback Terrance McGee. Now Fred Jackson is out for the year and the jury is still out over CJ Spiller’s ability to be an every down back in the NFL. Don’t really think much of the Jets, however, and definitely don’t want to lay this price with them. Pass.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

No real interest in this game—Browns have a lot of personnel questions still up in the air, most significantly the status of workhorse running back Peyton Hillis. The Bengals are a team I’ve liked to use this year getting points but I’m not as enthused by the prospect of laying a touchdown with them. Cincy has put up good ATS numbers this year—7-2 ATS and have taken care of business as a favorite going 3-1 ATS when laying points. Then again, since 2009 they’re just 4-12 ATS as chalk. No interest in the side, slight lean to the UN 37′.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Texans will play without starting quarterback Matt Schaub but will get star wide receiver Andre Johnson back in the lineup. Matt Leinart will start at quarterback for Houston and his task will be made considerably easier by the Texans’ potent rushing attack. No interest in the Jaguars but with the line currently at -6′ there’s not much value on the Texans either. Slight lean to the UN 37′.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Panthers may be the Colts best chance for a SU win, but do they even care at this point? Carolina has issues on defense but you know that Cam Newton will be better than any quarterback Indy puts on the field. Panthers have lost 12 straight road games, so they’ve got their own losing streak they’ll be looking to end. Lean to Carolina/Over.

TAMPA BAY BUCS AT TENNESSEE TITANS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

Bucs have looked shabby of late, but Titans are nothing special either. Matt Hasselbeck will be able to go here which does give the Titans an edge at QB with Josh Freeman struggling. Chris Johnson has underachieved this year but Tennessee will try to get him involved in the offense. If I had to pick a side I’d lean Tampa plus the points but the better play is the Under. Nothing ever comes easily for Tampa Bay and I’m willing to bet against a Chris Johnson rebound here.

Bet Tampa Bay/Tennessee Under 43′

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT ATLANTA FALCONS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

A lot of people on Minnesota here, basically as a play against the underachieving Falcons. With a few +10 prices popping up that position makes sense though I personally don’t want my money riding on Christian Ponder and an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings team. Pass.

CHICAGO BEARS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 1:05 PM PACIFIC

Classic case of line overcompensation for a player injury and the public appears to be buying it. Bears are as high as +4 now but with or without Cutler they’re the better team. Don’t forget that Darren McFadden is still sidelined giving Chicago the edge at running back with powerful Matt Forte. With the way that Carson Palmer has played since coming to Oakland (7 INTs) I’m not sure that Oakland has an edge at quarterback even with Caleb Hanie starting for the Bears. Chicago has been playing exceptional football since a slow start to the season winning five straight. With or without Cutler they’re the better team.

Bet Chicago Bears +4 over Oakland Raiders

WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 1:05 PM PACIFIC

One of those games that looks a little too ‘obvious’. Seahawks have long had one of the most pronounced home/road dichotomies in the NFL. They’ve covered 3 of their four home games this year and 6 of their last 8 at Qwest Field. Dating back to 2009 they’re 14-7 ATS in the Jet City. The fact that this is the first time the Seahawks have been favored in their last 17 games gives me some concern but they’ve also been a very good ‘bully’ in recent years covering 7 of their L10 as chalk dating back to 2009. If I had to play this game the Seahawks are definitely the play but instead I’ll take this game ‘Under’ with two offenses that aren’t clicking at the moment.

Bet Washington/Seattle Under 38

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES NOVEMBER 27, 2011 1:15 PM PACIFIC

So let me get this straight….the New England Patriots coached by Bill Belichick and with Tom Brady at quarterback are playing the Philadelphia Eagles coached by Andy Reid and with Vince Young at quarterback? Even off a short week for New England this game has ‘mismatch’ written all over it. Pats have the Colts up next so it’s not like they have a ‘lookahead situation’. For some reason, the public and even some so called ‘sharps’ continue to drink the Eagles’ KoolAid.

Bet New England Patriots -3′ over Philadelphia Eagles

DENVER BRONCOS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 1:15 PM PACIFIC

Reasonable people can disagree on Tim Tebow’s longterm prospects as a NFL quarterback but there are a few things that can’t be denied—he’s 4-1 as a starter and his teammates play hard for him. That could be enough to cash this ticket against a disappointing San Diego Chargers team. Chargers are notorious for slow starts, but it’s becoming obvious that there won’t be any late season turn around this year. San Diego is 2-9 ATS this season and without an intrinsic reason for them to have a strong effort here I expect them to go to 2-10 ATS as their SU/ATS losing streak reaches six games. Chargers have struggled to put points on the board and everyone knows the deal with the Broncos’ offense so I’ll also play the Under here.

Bet Denver Broncos +5′ over San Diego Chargers
Bet Denver/San Diego Under 42

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS NOVEMBER 27, 2011 5:30 PM PACIFIC

Tyler ‘The Commodore’ Palko isn’t a bad quarterback and there are some technical reasons to look at KC plus the points here. That being said, this is a game that I’m going to pass with plenty of better value options on the board.

NFL BETTING RECAP FOR SUNDAY:

Bet Tampa Bay/Tennessee Under 43′
Bet Chicago Bears +4 over Oakland Raiders
Bet Washington/Seattle Under 38
Bet New England Patriots -3′ over Philadelphia Eagles
Bet Denver Broncos +5′ over San Diego Chargers
Bet Denver/San Diego Under 42

340 total views, 2 views today