Three plays on Sunday’s NFL card. For late breaking news and extra picks follow me on Twitter and ‘like’ EOG on Facebook. Links at the end of this writeup:

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS—SEPTEMBER 25, 2011 10:00 AM PACIFIC

The Dolphins are a trainwreck at home where they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. On the road, however, they’re not a bad team. From an investment standpoint, they’re a very good team—away from Miami they’ve covered 11 of their last 14 including 6 of 8 in 2010. As a road dog of 3 points or less they’re 5-0 SU/ATS since 2009. The Browns aren’t much of a team—they’d likely be 0-2 like Miami except they had the good fortune to play the Manning-less Colts last week. The Dolphins, meanwhile, were playing New England and Houston so this represents a major class drop for them. Miami wins outright to enhance their ‘road warrior’ status.

Bet Miami Dolphins +2′ over Cleveland Browns

NEW YORK JETS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS—SEPTEMBER 25, 2011 1:05 PM PACIFIC

Pretty simple concept—Jets are overrated, Raiders are underrated. Oakland coming off a tough loss to Buffalo in which their defense melted down in the second half but in my view that won’t look as bad as the season goes along since Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense is legit. Jets will be without All Pro center Nick Mangold and the Raiders’ defensive front should be able to put pressure on Mark Sanchez. Raiders’ Jason Campbell isn’t too far below Sanchez qualitatively and Oakland will have the best running back on the field with Darren McFadden.

Bet Oakland Raiders +3 over New York Jets

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS—SEPTEMBER 25, 2011 1:05 PM PACIFIC

Total is high based on the public perception of the Packers’ offense, but the head to head series has trended strongly Under. The last seven meetings between the Bears and Packers have gone Under the total and the Bears’ defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in the last six games with Green Bay. Don’t have much confidence in Chicago’s ability to protect Jay Cutler, but this is a spot where I expect the Bears’ offense to show up. Based on my score projection, this one won’t make it out of the 30’s.

Bet Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears Under 46

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