NFL Week 6 concludes on Monday Night Football serves up an AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. Both teams have disappointed this season heading into this game with a combined record of 2-7.

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW YORK JETS OCTOBER 17, 2011 5:35 PM PACIFIC

With the lackluster matchups on Monday Night Football this season Hank Williams, Jr. may be relieved not to have his ‘brand’ associated with the product. This is yet another mediocre on paper pairing that at first glance offers interest in playing on the road underdog Dolphins. Miami is a winless team coming off a bye week, which is a traditionally strong technical situation for NFL handicappers. The Dolphins have also been a very strong play on the road going 12-6 ATS since 2009 and serving as an ironic counterpoint to their well documented struggles both SU and ATS on their home field. They’ve also won and covered against the Jets in New York in the last three years. The Jets’ defense is soft compared to recent incarnation and has allowed 98 points in their last three games. They’ve also not been getting the production from their rushing game that they’re used to seeing either.

These situational edges for Miami—combined with the disappointing play of the Jets—are likely why the home team is less than a touchdown favorite in this game (Jets -6′ at most books at this writing). And while the Jets’ defense is certainly porous I just don’t see the sputtering Miami offense being able to exploit this liability. Miami has scored only 69 points this season (#31 in the league) and didn’t really have any offensive playmakers even before Chad Henne was lost for the season. Reggie Bush has been ineffective and without a viable running game the Jets can focus on stopping Henne’s understudy, Matt Moore, through the air. Moore hasn’t looked terrible in his limited action this year and has had a bye week to get into sync, but its unrealistic to expect a miraculous performance from him. In 13 starts with Carolina Moore posted a 16 to 18 touchdown to interceptions ratio.

Even though the Jets are down a bit from recent years they’re likely not as bad as they’ve looked recently—they’re coming off of three tough road games in a row (Oakland, Baltimore and New England) and should make short work of an overmatched and generally hapless Miami team that’s now playing out the string whether they like it or not. It would take a monumental and completely improbable turnaround to save Tony Sparano’s job as head coach and even if the team wants to play hard for their leader they just don’t have the weapons to compete week after week in the NFL. Jets should win this one by double digits.

Bet New York Jets -6′ over Miami Dolphins

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