MLB: Judging The Umpires
by Michael Murray [07.02.06]

Umpires are often thought of as the third team on the baseball field in any given game.  While not quite as influential as a starting pitcher on the Over/Under line, knowing the home plate umpire is vital if a bettor wants to play a total.An umpire has spent years calling balls and strikes his way.  Ques-Tec, a computer monitoring system designed to make a more consistent strike zone for all umpires, has been shown to be inconsequential.
 

MLB: The Most Powerful Tool In Handicapping
by Michael Murray [06.22.06]

The main problem for baseball bettors is the lack of time one has to handicap 15 games each day. Whereas football gives amateur bettors plenty of time to sift through vital information, many baseball bettors are forced to take shortcuts in order to handicap the daily card.The use of a computer is the best way to cut down on the time needed to competently handicap a baseball game. Microsoft Excel, in particular, is the single most powerful tool a bettor can have when handicapping a game.

MLB: Handicapping In Chunks
by Michael Murray [06.19.06]

It hasn't been much of a month for the Cubs. Derrick Lee broke his wrist, and what has followed has been a collapse unseen since Pets.com went from $11 to 19 cents in just eight months.  The numbers after Lee's injury are stark: comical for most baseball fans and unsurprising for beaten-down Cub fans who expect the worse and typically see their expectations matched.

MLB: Exploiting Defense
by Michael Murray [06.14.06]

When a surprise team busts out of the gates early in the season, one of the first places to look for a reason is a team's defense.  Offense and pitching are usually rather predictable: a team's ability to field…much trickier to deal with.In baseball, what we often think of as good pitching is in large part simply good defense. Elite pitchers like Johann Santana can create their own outs by striking out batters.

MLB: The Platoon Edge - Betting On Lefty/Righty Splits
by Michael Murray [05.21.06]

With 20% of the baseball season nearly complete, certain team tendencies are now taking shape. What may have been dismissed as a statistical fluke a few weeks ago now should be looked at as a possible trend that a winning bettor can take advantage of. One such angle is a team's platoon splits. A team that is loaded with left-handed hitters will struggle against left-handed pitchers, just as a team stocked with right-handed batters will have problems against righties. A good example of this is the 2005 San Francisco Giants.
 

MLB: 5th Inning Wagers
by Michael Murray [05.09.06]

April 24: Brad Lidge enters the Houston/Los Angeles game to close out a 2-1 Astros lead. A triple, two walks, and a grand slam later, he leaves the game with Houston losing 5-2. The Dodgers tack on another run, and a game that saw Andy Pettitte take a no-hitter into the 7th ended up a 6-2 Astros loss.April 24:  Matt Herges, taking over for Jason Vargas after Vargas allowed only one hit through seven innings, gives up a double and a walk to the Cubs with Florida leading 3-0 in the 8th inning. He is replaced by Josh Johnson, who walks the bases loaded, gives up a run on a fielder's choice, two runs on a single to center field, and a three run homer to Jacque Jones.  Cubs 6, Florida 3.

Tracking Bullpens
by Michael Murray [04.25.06]

MLB: Betting On Streaks
by Michael Murray [04.16.06]

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the 2006 season by sweeping the Pirates 3-0, confirming many people's views about the profit potential of this up and coming team.  It also energizes the streak bettors; those gamblers that look for a roller coaster just taking off and hopping on for the ride.The theory behind this is simple. Pound a team while it is hot, and abandon ship once that streak ends. You can only lose once using this method. But is in profitable?

MLB: Spring Training Dangers
by Michael Murray [04.02.06]

Spring training is always a contradiction for major league teams. On one hand you hear the players and front office constantly say "it's only spring training…it means nothing." On the other hand these same teams make a number of decisions each spring based solely on spring training numbers.  Gavin Floyd, following up a disastrous 2005 season in which he had a 7.63 ERA in 160+ innings pitched, was able to parley a strong spring training into a spot in the Phillies rotation. Ryan Church, one of the better hitters on an atrocious Washington Nationals team, was sent down to AAA after batting .200 in spring training.

NBA: Team Chemistry
by Michael Murray [03.27.06]

Chemistry is one of the most overused, overrated clichés in sports today. Winning brings about good chemistry. Losing leads to a sniping and infighting between teammates.  The media usually gets this back words: often times you will hear claims that a team is winning because they get along so well off the court.  Maybe so, but this type of teamwork is hard to measure.It is possible to measure a form of 'team chemistry', however.
 

NCAAB: Thursday Night Sweet Sixteen
by Michael Murray [03.23.06]

One of the critical errors a bettor makes when handicapping is using statistics that are not adjusted for a team's style of play.  Memphis is second to Duke in total points scored in the NCAA. That doesn't mean their offense is the 2nd best in the country; a bettor has to adjust for Memphis's pace when looking at the numbers. The formula for determining a team's pace is: Field Goal Attempts + Turnovers - Offensive Rebounds + (4.75 * Free Throw Attempts).

MLB: Season Totals
by Michael Murray [03.20.06]

Regression to the mean is a fact of nature.  Unusually tall parents will tend to have shorter kids. A child born of two geniuses will tend to be smarter than the average kid, but still not as intelligent as either of his parents. This holds true in sports as well.  When a team has an unusually successful season, chances are they will revert back to form the next. Different labels are put on this regression to the mean in sports.  "Sophomore slump" is one common term.  Another phrase, "The Whirlpool Principle", was coined by Bill James as stating all performance is forcefully drawn to the mean.

MLB: The World Baseball Classic -- Asian Style
by Michael Murray [03.02.06]

After months of hype, controversy and confusion, the World Baseball Classic finally kicks off Thursday night with an opening round game between Taiwan and Korea. The early lines show Japan as a heavy favorite. The Japanese, managed by Sadaharu Oh, is -260 according to Pinnacle's line makers.  Taiwan, also known as Chinese Taipei, is the second choice at +336.  Korea is the third choice: TheGreek.com puts Korea' s chances at winning Pool A at +500.  China, led by former major league manager Jim Lefebrve, is the dark horse at 80-1.

NBA: Totals and the Road Factor

NBA: Totals and the Road Factor

Trends always carry a warning sign with them.  Often times what one thinks might be a worthwhile angle is simply a statistical fluke. Playing that trend may still be a 50/50 shot, but it isn't the edge that a basketball bettor is looking for.The Seattle Supersonics are one example. So far this season, the Sonics have gone Over in 21 of their 26 home games.  The Over/Under record on the road is a more pedestrian 15-12 Over, not quite as impressive.
 

NCAAB: Bubble Teams [02.16.06]
by Michael Murray

With motivation playing such a large factor in college basketball, a handicapper needs to keep in mind which teams are on the bubble for the NCAA tournament and which ones are reduced to playing out the string. For many teams, each game has become a do or die proposition.  An upset loss can doom its hopes. Miami learned this last week with its two disasters at home against North Carolina and NC State. Pay close attention to the bubble teams.

NFL: The NFL Fix [02.13.06]
by Michael Murray

Project Layoff is best known as the IRS sting designed to entrap Billy Walters and the Computer Group.  Posing as a Las Vegas bookmaking operation, the Marcos Sports Service hoped to catch the Computer Group and others in money laundering and tax evasion charges. It was not to be.  The Marcos Sports Service closed up shop after two armed gamblers, wanting money owed, showed up at its office in an angry mood. The IRS sting brought down no indictments yet cost the government over a half million dollars.

NBA: Teasing the NBA (Part 1 of 2)
by Michael Murray

Like playing the "Don't" line in craps, winning a NBA teaser in some way means betting with the sportsbook. The more accurate the linemaker is, the more likely a teaser will win.  The rules for teasers are simple: the sportsbook gives a bettor additional points in the pointspread, and the bettor must bet and win at least two games with the adjusted lines. There are several well-known situations that a teaser is profitable in football.

NBA: Aging Teams Playing on Short Rest [01.18.06]
by Michael Murray

Tired legs take their toll on any NBA teams.  San Antonio has lost seven games so far this year; four of those losses have come on the 2nd night of back to back games. With a full day's rest or more this season, the Spurs are 22-3. In back to back games, San Antonio is only 1-4. As the oldest team in the NBA, it would seem logical that the that the Spurs would struggle in back to back games. One has to ask if other aging teams struggle as well.

NBA: Is There Value in Fading Back to Back Games? [01.10.06]
by Michael Murray

Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, has discovered the problem of NBA teams playing back to back games.  On his blog, Blogmaverick.com, Cuban discusses the difficulties a team faces when forced to play consecutive games. "Beyond fatigue, the impact of travel, trying to adjust to time zone changes and more add up to make it difficult for players and teams. Heck, I get tired from them, I cant imagine how tough it is on the guys," says Cuban.
 

CBB: The New Year's Eve Road Trip [12.30.05]
by Michael Murray

As conference plays gets under way for college basketball teams, it is important to remember some key factors that come into play this time of year.  For most students, late December and early January is a chance to leave school and spend some time at home. Not so for basketball players. Teams typically take a few days off for Christmas before bringing the players back to practice on an empty campus. A team's normal routine has been interrupted.

CBB: The Mid-Major Rising [12.28.05]
by Michael Murray

Like a sharp-looking groupie having a drink in a team's hotel bar, mid-major schools have chalked up an impressive hit list so far this NCAA season.  Old Dominion's waxing of DePaul Saturday night was one more sign: college basketball's landscape has changed this season. Power conferences still rule the roost. Yoni Cohen of FoxSports.com predicts that the seven power conferences will grab 29 of the 34 at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament this year.

NBA: Middling Totals [12.25.05]
by Michael Murray

Middling an NBA side becomes profitable around 1.5 points, an argument made in this EOG article http://www.eog.com/news/index.aspx?id-1063  on December 9.  What wasn't addressed was the possibility of middling totals: at what point does middling an NBA total become profitable?The same standards used in middling NBA sides are used in NBA totals.  With a 10-cent vigorish, a bettor has to hit one in twenty-one attempts to break even (4.8%).
 

NBA: There's No Place Like Home [12.19.05]
by Michael Murray

Knowing how each team is performing at home and on the road is a fundamental factor a bettor has to account for when handicapping a game.  A gambler easily understands Cleveland is struggling away from home this year. But teams also show home/away tendencies this year in Totals as well. Orlando and Detroit like to play faster at home than on the road so far this year, while the Indiana and Atlanta tend to play a slower pace when hosting a game.

NBA: Middling the NBA [12.09.05]
by Michael Murray

The line for Tuesday night's Dallas/Indiana game opened up at Indiana -4.5. Most bettors liked the Pacers, and the number moved up to Indiana -6.0 by tip-off in some places. Early Pacers bettors were faced with a pleasant decision to make: should they keep their initial wager and hope that smart money was what moved the line, or should they do what is known as middling.

CBB: Conference Sharp-Shooting [12.05.05]
by Michael Murray

A typical college basketball bettor tends to have one philosophy when gambling on the game early in the season: bite off more than you can handle, then chew like hell. Everyone falls into this trap.  The early season tournament lines look so juicy that it is hard to lay off.  Fortunately the bookmaker can be as lost as the bettor, staving off potential disaster.
 

NBA: The Return To Detroit [12.02.05]
by Michael Murray

The players may be the same, but Larry Brown's visit to Detroit will showcase the changes that have occurred to the Pistons since Brown quit at the end of last season. Under Brown, Detroit used an outstanding defense and a mediocre offense to a NBA title in 2004 and a runner-up trophy in 2005.  That has changed this year.

 

NBA: Home Cooking? [11.29.05]
by Michael Murray

It has been said that each city has two separate NBA teams: the one that plays in that city, and the one that travels on the road.  The sample size is awfully small so far this year, but a look at how each team is playing at home and on the road can prove profitable.Last Wednesday's Boston-Cleveland game will bear this out.  The Cavaliers were 10 point favorites.

NBA: The Shaken Favorite Systems [11.21.05]
by Michael Murray

And then there was one. The Toronto Raptors, winless in nine games so far this season, took advantage of a sleepwalking Miami Heat team that has yet to win a road game without Shaquille O'Neil. The 107-94 Raptors win leaves the Atlanta Hawks as the only team without a victory this year.

NBA: The Phil Jackson Myth [11.17.05]
by Michael Murray

After an absence that seemed longer than a year, Phil Jackson has reportedly returned to the Los Angeles Lakers. At this time it seems like only a rumor: the Lakers have spent a majority of their time on the road. Staples Center has seen two Lakers game so far this year, while LA has had five road games.

CBB: Selling Teams Short [11.15.05]
by Michael Murray

Like an investment in cattle futures, early season college basketball offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity that rewards bettors who do their homework early.Those of us gamblers who can't make a bet without firing up Excel are at a loss early in the college basketball season.

MLB: The American League Pennant
by Michael Murray

The similarities between the White Sox and Angels are striking.  Both teams' hitters are aggressive at bat and on the bases. Each team attacks offensively by stealing bases, sacrifice bunting, and utilizing hit-and-runs.  Putting pressure on the defense is a key part of Mike Scoscia and Ozzie Guillen's offensive philosophy.

MLB: Winning in The Playoffs
by Michael Murray

The 162-game season was designed to determine the best team in baseball.  Like the NCAA tournament, however, the best team doesn't always win the championship. In fact, past history tells us that the best team usually doesn't take home the prize...

MLB: NL Playoff Patsies
by BetWWTS.com

Yawn…Atlanta is once again in the post-season. What is this, the 50th year in a row that they've won the NL East?

Sure seems like it.

CFB: Thursday Night Football
by Michael Murray

France vs. Germany.  Selig vs. Fehr. Manning vs. Bellichick. How much longer until NC State vs. Georgia Tech is included in the mix? It started on November 10, 1918. Georgia Tech, coached by the legendary John Heisman, squeaked out a 128-0 victory over NC State that observers agree was much closer than that.

Betting on Emotion
by Michael Murray

Intensity is a tremendous factor in any college football game. When a heavy underdog upsets a powerhouse, a lack of focus on the losing team is often the key reason.

MLB: The AL Wild Card Race
by Michael Murray

Despite the charge of the Indians, the Chicago White Sox will still make the playoffs. The reasoning is simple: The White Sox don’t need to worry about being passed by the Indians. They also have to be passed by both the Yankees and Red Sox. With ten games left, it is down to four teams fighting for three spots.

Falcons' Offense Key
by Michael Murray

Attack football is why Boise St. was 2nd in the nation last year, with an average of 49 points a game.  On defense it is another story. The Bowling Green Falcons, Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Omar Jacobs, are just the team to exploit Boise State’s weakness in the backfield. 

Playing for October
by Michael Murray

Wild card teams have won the last three World Series. The team with the better regular season record has lost 21 of 38 first round series since the playoffs expanded to eight teams in 1995. Of the thirty-five World Series Champions since 1969, only eight have had the best regular season record.

Fading the Streaks
byMichael Murray

The Gold Sheet has a formula designed to uncover teams whose current form is at odds with the bookmakers and general public. The calculation is the difference between a team’s results and the line on the game.  A negative number means a team is possibly overvalued...

Interactive Gambling (09.08.05)
by Michael Murray

"Baseball is a static game. Football is static until you snap the ball. Then all hell breaks loose." - Terry Donahue.

In baseball, hell never breaks loose. This static nature, combined with the overflow of statistical data, presents bettors with unique chances in interactive betting.

The National League Wild Card Race (09.02.05)
by Michael Murray

Any edge can make a difference in the final playoff push to the handful of teams fighting for the Wild Card berth. In the National League, five teams remain within two games of the WC lead. Who these teams play, and where, may determine the winner.

MLB: Creating a Baseball Line
by Michael Murray

So you are doing your homework for ESPN’s Sunday night baseball game between Philadelphia and Arizona. Using power numbers for each team’s offense and pitching/defense, you come up with an expected runs scored for each team.  The Phillies should win the game; your numbers agree with the sportsbooks. But which team has the value?

Spot-Betting (08.23.05)
by Michael Murray

One of the first books on handicapping was written in 1974 by Kelso Sturgeon, a tout who is still selling his picks today. He listed a set of rules for spot-bettors; those baseball gamblers who don’t have time or desire to do the work necessary to bring steady profits...    

Interactive Betting by Michael Murray
Gambling's "Crack Cocaine"
It isn’t enough for some to bet before the game. Some bettors want to bet during the game as well. Interactive betting is simply betting while the game is in action. It is known as the crack cocaine of the sports betting world; it is betting on the fly without any real chance to handicap based on numbers.

Runs and Heat by Michael Murray  
Betting Totals In August
According to Robert Adair’s fascinating book "The Physics of Baseball", the hotter the baseball the further it will travel. Assume a baseball’s core temperature is 70 degrees when it is hit 400 feet. Each 10-degree increase in temperature will increase the flight of the ball by 3 feet. If the ball temperature is 100 degrees, what may have been a long out is now a 410-foot home run.

Pitching and the
Misery Index   by Michael Murray
What erratic pitching data might really mean.
During his 1980 Presidential campaign against a Georgia peanut farmer, Reagan introduced a relatively unknown term into the nation’s lexicon. 

The “Misery Index” combined the rate of inflation with the unemployment rate, and showed with just one number how poorly the economy was doing under Carter.Twenty-five years later the Misery Index has worked its way into baseball’s terminology as well.    

Repeating History (10.28.05)
by Michael Murray

Well, it has been done before. Maybe coming back from a three-zilch hole will be like running a four-minute mile; once it is shown it can happen, the feat is no longer impossible. Since the Red Sox popped that cherry last year, the Astros will repeat the deed.  Houston, and Fox television, certainly hopes this is the case.
 

MLB: Scouting the World Series Umpires (10.22.05)
by Michael Murray

Major League Baseball, apparently thrilled by the Doug Eddings and Phil Cuzzi debacles in the playoffs, has chosen a sextet of umpires that bring bad attitudes, bad strike zones, and bad judgment to its October showcase.
 

MLB: Butterfly Effect
by Michael Murray

It is commonly known as the Butterfly Effect- the idea that the flap of a butterfly's wing in Brazil can set off a tornado in Texas.  A more technical description is "sensitive dependence on initial conditions". No sport fits this better than baseball.

CBB: Handicapping Non-Conference Play [11.11.05]
by Edward Golden
(Handicapper.net)

The number one thing I focus on early in the season is talent evaluation.  Finding out early on which teams are overrated and underrated is key to successful early season wagering. 

MLB: Back to St. Louis
by Michael Murray

Last night it was over. Albert Pujols didn't just hit a three-run homer. It was a three-game homer; a historic shot that made it tore the Astros apart and finished them off for the season.  The sun rose this morning, and that perspective changed. Houston has seen trouble before.

NBA: Battle of the Boards [11.10.05]
by Michael Murray

A glance at the rebounding numbers in the box score tells us all we need to know about the result of Monday night's Toronto-Cleveland basketball game. The Cavaliers had fourteen offensive rebounds; Toronto scooped nine. But it is the ratio that concerns us, and Cleveland utterly dominated the Raptors in this department.
 

NBA: The NBA Toolbox [10.31.05]
by Michael Murray

Betting on basketball is a game of exact mathematics. No weather problems. A round ball shot at a standard 10-foot goal. Fewer injuries compared to football.  A large number of scoring opportunities for both sides…to many bettors, wagering on basketball is the easiest sport to beat.

NBA: Thin-Slicing the NBA [11.03.05]
by Michael Murray

Betting on basketball forces a gambler to adopt a thin-slicing style of handicapping.  We typically have a week to make up our minds when looking at football games. Getting bogged down in the details of football is part of the fun.  In basketball, this isn't possible.
 

NBA: Week One Surprises [11.07.05]
by Michael Murray

Drawing a conclusion on just a week's worth of NBA action is a bit like judging the temperature outside from your bathroom; any firm determination is simply guesswork. But there are some surprises that deserve an early look.  Washington, undefeated at 3-0 and in first place in the Southeast division, is one team that stands out.