I know with the Beyer figs, they will also go by a projection. I've heard Randy Moss (not THAT one), Nick Tammaro and Beyer himself mention how if a race fig makes no sense, they will alter it to "fit'. I used to make figs for the Chicago circuit all thru the 90s and early 2000s. I would also project figs if the race number made no sense. Its never going to always be right, but it makes sense. I also know the Beyer group may go back weeks later and change a fig as they get more evidence (more horses run back).
150th Run for the Roses
- Thread starter cheapseats
- Start date
I know with the Beyer figs, they will also go by a projection. I've heard Randy Moss (not THAT one), Nick Tammaro and Beyer himself mention how if a race fig makes no sense, they will alter it to "fit'. I used to make figs for the Chicago circuit all thru the 90s and early 2000s. I would also project figs if the race number made no sense. Its never going to always be right, but it makes sense. I also know the Beyer group may go back weeks later and change a fig as they get more evidence (more horses run back).
howid
EOG Dedicated
yes also known as Aikenite syndrome
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Please stop w TG
railbird
EOG Master
If it was baffert all the jews would be whining
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Only took a couple of days for Kelce to apologize for his rant….
Saratoga at times can be like Ruidoso on trial days a rain storm and a wind switch can change the track drastically. Aikenite won his maiden race and got a 59 Beyer( someone can correct me on exact# but this is close) horses kept coming out of that race that were up the track and were winning with 80 Beyer marks. Aikenite was a victim of the ever changing track. His Beyer got adjusted a few times and I think his 59 ended up as an 80 or so.
Good one, JASSON621.
You truly are a student of the game.
Aikenite, a Pletcher horse about a decade ago.
You truly are a student of the game.
Aikenite, a Pletcher horse about a decade ago.
Just watched the replay again.
T O Password, the "other" Japanese horse, was bounced around real good over the first half-mile or so.
He then launched seven wide from the back of the pack only to be too far away from the leaders in the end.
If he had been within contact of the top three horses, it would not have helped that Japanese jock Kazushi Kimura dropped his whip at the furlong pole.
Still amazed at the close finish of the race.
The official margins separating the top three horses: Nose and nose.
Hard to gauge Derby performances these days.
In the 1980's and early 1990's, horsemen believed a strong two-year-old foundation was necessary for a leading Kentucky Derby contender.
Enter Bob Baffert who simply wanted his horses to run their lifetime best on the first Saturday in May, no matter the careful preparation before the race or sometimes the dire consequences after the race.
In the 1980's and early 1990's, horsemen believed a strong two-year-old foundation was necessary for a leading Kentucky Derby contender.
Enter Bob Baffert who simply wanted his horses to run their lifetime best on the first Saturday in May, no matter the careful preparation before the race or sometimes the dire consequences after the race.
The Derby is a bit like the MLB postseason.
Make the race and then hope for the best.
The best horse doesn't win the Derby, the lucky one does.
Make the race and then hope for the best.
The best horse doesn't win the Derby, the lucky one does.
blueline
EOG Master
How many from the Derby
Muth 11-10
Mystik Dan 3-1
Tuscan Gold 5-1
Imagination 5-1
Just Steel 10-1
Seize the Gray 10-1
Copper Tax 16-1
Uncle Heavy 20-1
Mugatu 33-1
*2024 Preakness Stakes odds provided at cbssports.com as of 5/10/24.
2024 Preakness Stakes odds
Muth 11-10
Mystik Dan 3-1
Tuscan Gold 5-1
Imagination 5-1
Just Steel 10-1
Seize the Gray 10-1
Copper Tax 16-1
Uncle Heavy 20-1
Mugatu 33-1
*2024 Preakness Stakes odds provided at cbssports.com as of 5/10/24.
blueline
EOG Master
Stay in your lane kelce:
“I’m sorry everyone, wasn’t trying to get people riled up,” he posted. “I really thought it was just known that in the 70s steroid use was rampant. I’m not trying to take away from Secretariat’s, or anyone from that era's legacy. You’re right, without proof it is unfair to assume these things publicly, I apologize.”
“The biggest misconception [Kelce] had is that the large heart had to be due to steroids,” she says. “It was not chemically or pathologically enlarged—just a genetic gift of nature that enabled him to run farther and faster than any horse in the last century. This large-heart trait has been researched by equine geneticists who have documented its occurrence in the bloodlines of both Secretariat’s forbears and his descendants. It has zero to do with steroids or any other drugs.”
The late William Nack, the former SI writer who chronicled Secretariat like no other, wrote about the results of Big Red’s necropsy. He noted that the heart “wasn’t pathologically enlarged. All the chambers and the valves were normal. It was just larger. I think it told us why he was able to do what he did.”
“I’m sorry everyone, wasn’t trying to get people riled up,” he posted. “I really thought it was just known that in the 70s steroid use was rampant. I’m not trying to take away from Secretariat’s, or anyone from that era's legacy. You’re right, without proof it is unfair to assume these things publicly, I apologize.”
“The biggest misconception [Kelce] had is that the large heart had to be due to steroids,” she says. “It was not chemically or pathologically enlarged—just a genetic gift of nature that enabled him to run farther and faster than any horse in the last century. This large-heart trait has been researched by equine geneticists who have documented its occurrence in the bloodlines of both Secretariat’s forbears and his descendants. It has zero to do with steroids or any other drugs.”
The late William Nack, the former SI writer who chronicled Secretariat like no other, wrote about the results of Big Red’s necropsy. He noted that the heart “wasn’t pathologically enlarged. All the chambers and the valves were normal. It was just larger. I think it told us why he was able to do what he did.”
The short price on Muth may be the only price that pays.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Muth has been scratched from the Preakness due to a fever…
blueline
EOG Master
I missed this...cobra stuff still in play apparently
TG and 'Sheets' can be a expensive habit if you're not winning.
It can be more expensive if you don't have that information.
Heim
EOG Master
Of course they're the best money can buy and they influence the board more than any other supplement to the Form.
Nonetheless, I never met a sharp player who didn't utilize the prior race replays to gain a edge. The fig only tells part
of the story. Did a horse have trouble changing leads?, was he rank down the stretch? et al...
Race replays never lie.
As long as you know what you're watching.
As long as you know what you're watching.
The overhead shot from the drones are next-level stuff.
Heim
EOG Master
Yep....visually impressive. I always preferred the head on shot down the stretch it tells you who has gas in
tank, naturally always keeping the fractions in mind.
blueline
EOG Master
FR3 is a big part of what I do and I look at replays to see how athletic a horse is.
The stewards tapes in SoCal were an excellent source for some sharp handicappers back in the day.
The gallop out is always a point of contention among trip handicappers.
Some analysts ignore what happens after the wire, but I disagree.
Yet another data point in my book.
Some analysts ignore what happens after the wire, but I disagree.
Yet another data point in my book.
I'm ready to hear some angles.
I assume weight from start to start would be as important if not moreso than today's weight.
Is "moreso" one word or two?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Most grammarians prefer "more so" over "moreso."
Though the latter is acceptable.
Though the latter is acceptable.
blueline
EOG Master
I bet horses off of layoffs...season debuts of 3 and 4yo.....Im interested in maturity.
I need to dig into how much horses mature biologically from 2 to 3 and 3 to 4.
When I see a track with weights posted Im intrigued....there may be something there for me...havent acted it upon it....yet
I need to dig into how much horses mature biologically from 2 to 3 and 3 to 4.
When I see a track with weights posted Im intrigued....there may be something there for me...havent acted it upon it....yet
I'm disappointed when I see weights listed on the simulcast signal in the final few minutes of wagering.
I'd prefer to see exacta probables or daily double probables at that crucial time.
Don't show me weights when I want to see the all-important late money hit the board.
At certain racetracks, the batch bettors are so good that you cannot see their moves until the far turn.
Important for days like tomorrow if some races stay on the turf.
blueline
EOG Master
good point
I don’t mind those during the race but the rest of the camera cuts are very annoying IMO.