Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Week 11

Hmm... so in the time I took away from posting here, I lost my home for CFL picks... So sorry for cluttering the NFL forum with this, but there's really no other place to put this thread for now. As promised, I updated my stats from the season across the street, and I'll bring them over here as well.

ATS: 12-9 (+12.38 units)
Totals: 12-5 (+9.55 units)
Team Totals: 13-5 (+9.53 units)
Moneylines: 9-9 (+6.07 units)
Props: 1-7 (-9.35 units)... but at least I've broken my props maiden...
Teasers: 1-1 (+0.50 unit)
1st half/Quarter: 22-10 (+13.84 units)
2nd half: 13-10 (+8.52 units)
Overall: 83-56 (59.71%) (+51.04 units)

I also have a few plays for this week, one of which has already half gone off. I will go back and make a general EOG running total as well, as it's not fair to say I have documented numbers, regardless of where they were posted, when they were made before this site was founded. But for those interested, the plays I have open right now are as follows...

Teaser: Montreal (-1) with Edm/Cal over 48 (2 units +100) (Note: Montreal -1 was already a winner)
Calgary/Edmonton over 54 (3.5 units -110)
16-11 (+1.23 units) here at EOG. I won't count the teaser in with my record, as it was impossible to get the wager in here. Also if anyone's interested, here are my thoughts on tonight's game, which I'll be betting later on.

Pop quiz: When was the last time the Riders scored 20 in a game? Answer: Week 4 against Hamilton. In fact, they've only done it 3 times this season, and only once was against even an even remotely decent team (Toronto, 23 in a losing effort).

I said it before and I'll say it again: This Riders team is done and they are playing like they know it. The loss to BC was absolutely demoralizing. Any hope of the playoffs aren't dashed, but the climb is certainly a lot higher now without those two points that signalled another win be snapped up by the jaws of defeat. The defense is playing pretty well for the Riders. Not great, but good enough. I give no credit for holding BC to 19, as Casey Printers also sucks, and Buck Pierce put 14 on the board in the 4th quarter. A strong effort against Ottawa twice in 3 weeks, but the 40+ against Montreal is a bit of a sore thumb (but again, I don't weigh that game as heavily, as the Alouettes offense is the best in the league, especially when Dickinson is hurt for the Lions)... and oh yeah, 44 allowed to the Stamps as well.

I hear all of the emotion and what not of this game, but what the Riders do, the Bombers do well.

-Matchup defense: Let's start with the basics. The Riders have only scored 17 TDs in 9 games this year. You're not winning if your offense only puts up 19.3 points a game. You'd figure the Neelon Green backers of this world would know this by now. The Riders can definitely run, especially with Neelon Green running around. The Bombers are a middle of the pack run-stopping team, but the Riders have struggled against worse of late. But for the record, the Bombers hold teams to a league best 4.9 yards per carry. Big problems if the running game can't get going for the Riders. Why? All going back to the primary reason for betting this game. Neelon Green sucks. If Crandell comes in to this game, the Riders will win, no doubt in my mind. However, if that doesn't happen, there's no doubt in my mind that the Bombers will win. However, looking at the other side of the ball....

-Kevin Glenn's definitely got the Bombers' offense rolling right now. Don't blame them for not beating Hamilton. Blame the fact that they couldn't keep any of Danny Mac's receivers in front of them. Bombers are still statistically one of the worst offenses in the CFL, but most of that dates back to the Tee Martin era this season (which is also where all the losses come from). Sask's secondary is good enough to keep the Bombers contained in this one, but Chris Brazell is only getting better week to week, and he makes the Winnepeg offense that much better.

Okay, so though I will play on the Bombers for the game, the bigger plays in this one for me are early, while I know that Neelon Green is going to be QBing for the Riders. I am playing this game with this general thought in mind.

Low scoring first half. Painfully low scoring. I don't know if the Riders can score more than once, MAYBE twice on the Bombers with Green at the helm in the 1st half. Happens to be the book number for the 1st quarter is a scary 10 even. I'd much much rather see a 10.5 number go up, but 0-0 at the end of the 1st quarter seems very possible to me. I think the Bombers are going to be the only team capable of scoring a major in the 1st half, perhaps propelling them to something like a 10-6 lead or something of the sorts at the half. I can see the Riders switching out to Crandell in the 2nd half, when I feel that emotion and such might take over and lead the Riders to a final drive shot at victory... something in the 24-20 range. I'm looking at 1st half under, particularly Saskatchewan's under, and taking Winnepeg in all possible situations right here. This game is going to be real close, and I still believe that the Bombers are going to have a real shot at winning this late. Let that last drive fall short for the Riders.

However, since the lines are all going in my favor, I'll wait until later to grab them. The whole world has steamed the Riders this week, and if I can get 6.5, I'll be overjoyed.
I know this looks like quite a bit, but it's really not that much... just a bunch of different things. Basically, it's taking Winnipeg and the under.

Winnipeg (+1) @ Saskatchewan 1Q (1.5 units -105)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 10 1Q (1 unit -108)

Winnipeg (+3.5) @ Saskatchewan 1H (2.25 units +105)
Winnipeg (ml) @ Saskatchewan 1H (0.25 units +162)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 26.5 1H (2 units -102)

Winnipeg (+7) @ Saskatchewan (1 unit +100)
Winnipeg (ml) @ Saskatchewan (0.5 units +240)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 53 (1 unit -105)
Saskatchewan under 28.5 (1.5 units +100)

Best of luck!
Crappy night... let's get it back with two games this afternoon.

Winnipeg (+1) @ Saskatchewan 1Q L (-1.57 units)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 10 1Q W (+1 unit)

Winnipeg (+3.5) @ Saskatchewan 1H L (-2.25 units)

Winnipeg (ml) @ Saskatchewan 1H L (-0.25 units)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 26.5 1H W (+2 units)

Winnipeg (+7) @ Saskatchewan L (-1 unit)
Winnipeg (ml) @ Saskatchewan L (-0.5 units)
Winnipeg/Saskatchewan under 53 L (-1.05 units)
Saskatchewan under 28.5 and 29.5 L (-2 units)

2-7, -5.62 units

Pending plays
Edmonton/Calgary over 54 (3.5 units -110)
Edmonton/Calgary over 48 (2nd leg of a the teaser) (2 units +100)

New plays
Edmonton over 29 (3 units -110)
Calgary over 25 (1.5 units -110)

Calgary (ml) vs. Edmonton (1 unit +150)
Edmonton/Calgary over 27 1H (2 units +102)
Edmonton/Calgary over 10 1Q (2.5 units -105)
Toronto (-0.5) w/ Edm/Cal over 48.5 (1.5 units +102)
Toronto (-5) @ Hamilton (2.5 units -110)
Toronto (-2.5) @ Hamilton 1H (1.5 units -115)
Toronto (ml) @ Hamilton 1H (1 unit -160)
Cal/Edm over 27.5 2H (2.5 units -110)
Cal (-1.5) 2H (2.5 units -115)

Gotta take a shot that the home crowd draws the Stamps closer
Sorry folks... the first game ended up going from the best play of the season to the worst loss of the season. Calgary lost by 2, 25-23, and had they gotten the 2-pt conversion at the end of the game, everything would have probably gone over in OT and we would have made a killing. Instead the books killed us.