Re: My Knowledge Of A Bookie To Be Successful.
LOL....yes, I know.
You don't have to worry about that happening...
LOL....yes, I know.
You don't have to worry about that happening...
It's obvious you've noted a flaw in your logic and are now resorting to circular logic, one in which you can agree with detractors and yet, still stand by your statement, the very ones your detractors disagree with.
YOU SAY...
"BTW Ironlock if a book is habitually 8-1 one way, that is definately gambling. Whether he has a supposed 50% chance of "winning" a game or not. That is definately GREED thinking. Or at least rationalization. Basically it is how a gambler thinks. If I can lay of that money and guarantee a $1000 I am bookmaking. If I let them both go I am SPECULATING(gambling)."
Again, you are mathematically, get that "MATHEMATICALLY" incorrect! Given that the outcome is 50% (which you have graciously done, thank you), and given that the bookmaker has a sufficient bankroll (which you have not done and is clearly the key to your keeping on), then how is it GAMBLING if one is getting +110 on a 50% proposition, it simply is NOT, mathematically....it is mathematically GUARANTEED a 4.54% return on investment. What do you not understand here? It wouldn't matter if the ratio where 10000 to 1, if the expectation is positive, and the bankroll is sufficient, there is NO GAMBLING at all! :+signs9-1
YOU ALSO SAY:
Every bettor that makes a bet supposedly has a 50% chance of winning. if they do, then why do they go broke so fast? They should be winning enough and losing enough so that only vig is getting eaten up when they collect, so they should have enough money to survive for awhile. But they don't. That is turning your example on its head.
Yes, gamblers go broke faster than bookmakers? WTF? For one thing, bm's have a positive expectation which usually helps. The better on the other hand, has a negative one, which tends to hurt.
Secondly, gamblers have a LIMITED bankroll. Limited bankroll+ negative expecation versus SUFFICIENT BANROLL+postive expectation=Gamblers going broke. Now which part of the above "turned my example on its head"....?
if a bookmaker knows what the line should be he should stop paying all his employee costs,stop paying all his processing costs,stop paying all his computer programmers, stop paying enormous cuts to his agents, stop living in fear that the u.s. government will come in and grab his bankroll, move his family out of some third world country and dismiss his bodyguards, stop getting laydowns AND BET...
it aint that easy
It's only that easy if you're HT. He just wakes up and knows what the line should be for that day's games.
I think a bookie should never move a line off of COLD money, I think in a long run you will beat the square and pay the Wiseguy. I think the biggest KEY is VOLUME, the problem that kills alot of books is GREED, they all want to be a MILLIONAIRE in one week, it doesnt work like that if you want to be successful you must have alot of patience.
Winbet, I wouldn't waste my time explaining to you, because you probably still wouldn't understand...:LMAOyou take bets on 2 way games (coin flip ) and think you have some prowess as a bookmaker :LMAO love to see you deal with a 20 runner horse race wanker. :btj:
this geezer gets more delusional about the game the more people just let him post bollocks. :shoot::cheers
Its called knowing your customers, but I doubt you even know what that means...LOL...:LMAOyou take bets on 2 way games (coin flip ) and think you have some prowess as a bookmaker :LMAO love to see you deal with a 20 runner horse race wanker. :btj:
this geezer gets more delusional about the game the more people just let him post bollocks. :shoot::cheers
Nice post, but the most important thing about booking is knowing your customers... the rest is history...if a bookmaker knows what the line should be he should stop paying all his employee costs,stop paying all his processing costs,stop paying all his computer programmers, stop paying enormous cuts to his agents, stop living in fear that the u.s. government will come in and grab his bankroll, move his family out of some third world country and dismiss his bodyguards, stop getting laydowns AND BET...
it aint that easy
Nice post, but the most important thing about booking is knowing your customers... the rest is history...
Its called knowing your customers, but I doubt you even know what that means...LOL...
Knowing your customers and KNOWING what they are doing.
Rainbow couldn't be more right.
You couldn't have picked a better place to book..:shoot:You wanker :LMAO I was bookmaking in Bagdad when you were still in your Dads bag and not on coin tosses either. :btj:
Too bad either one of you are not smart enough to realize it is that easy.
Morons make bank bookmaking.
12io4j2w90
Tyrone, thats not my point. I'm not moving a line off of a square and put a naked line out there for a wiseguy to gobble up... Thats just not the way I book, if I know I'm going to beat a player LONGTERM. Why would I move a line off of him?Absolutely not. the outcome its a 50/50 proposition but the bettor is laying 11 to win 10. Have anyone with the DGS software run a hold percentage report. Any package who had a hold percentage of less than 5% would be a loser booking 10 to win 10. The CRIS's of the world are lucky to hold 2 % due to the people they cater too but an outfit like bodog may hold 7% if they boot winners and keep squares.
MR Jones you cynical negatitive personality actually has enabled you to be a 100% correct in this instance!
Tyrone, thats not my point. I'm not moving a line off of a square and put a naked line out there for a wiseguy to gobble up... Thats just not the way I book, if I know I'm going to beat a player LONGTERM. Why would I move a line off of him?
I don't think you will see Pinnacle, Cris, Grande, Delmar, and the Greek run from anyone without paying in full...So, so much about mathematical probabilities. Are we thinking these offshore bookmakers went to the Wharton School of Business? I think they are a little more practical.
You win as an offshore bookie and you stay in business.
You lose and disappear into the jungle with the money (like the gambler has any recourse) and re-emerge as somebody else with a 100% bonus for new customers and try again.
This is how smart Wantitallformoi really is and if you read this whole thread you will see how bright the kid really is... This thread was in 2005 and he claims he embarassed me in it, maybe he should do a little bit more reading on his off time to see if I got EMBARASSED in this thread...LOL...Rainbow is right on, and in this case wantitallformoi is in over his head. If the BANKROLL is sufficient, why would a bookmaker move a number that is attracted in inordinate amount of money (cold money) from huge squares.
Wantitallformoi- Here is where you are mathematically WRONG. You view each GAME as a independant event. Smart bookmakers, with large enough bankrolls, veiw each game as 1 part of a larger series, forming "the long run". The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore, it plays out mathematically just as though he had EVERY game balanced...but, by not moving the number, he has collected for himself 4-5 times the amount of PROFIT (vig) than he would have given away using your Method of balancing EACH AND EVERY GAME!
YOUR WAY (with a two game scenario)
$10,000 on BAltimore+3
$90,0000 on INDY-3
YOUR WAY suggests that it is smart for the bookmaker to call off 80,000 of his action, and "guarantee" himself ($1,000 profit), I say guarantee as if we are talking about post up money.
GAME 2
90,000 on Denver-4.5
10,000 on Miami +4.5
YOUR WAY again suggest calling off 80,000 (80% of your action, you've generated by advertising, promoting, and earning a solid reputation) in order that you GUARANTEE yourself $1,000 profit.
So, your way, we have NO RISK and guarantee a grand total profit of $2000 of 220,000, a hold of 1%...wooooo hooooo.
THE SHARP BOOKMAKERS WAY(given a large enough bankroll)
GAME 1
$10,000 on BAltimore+3
$90,0000 on INDY-3
GAME 2
90,000 on Denver-4.5
10,000 on Miami +4.5
THE MATHEMATICALLY SAVY bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of all decisions, regardless of how heavy or inbalanced the sides are...He splits here, losing 79,000 on the Indy game and Winning 89,000 on the Miami game..for a NET PROFIT of 10,000 of of 220000 (net hold of 4.54%), the mathematically expected vig earned by a good bookmaker
So, unless you just plain DON"T believe in math, you're way is WRONG! Take these two examples and do the calculations over 2000 games and see which results you like best, and stop calling sharp bookmakers, idiots, Please!
:+signs9-1
Iron.
Bw, will never in life stop sending in his beards. He has several in our office in the football season and in the college hoop season. It doesn't take me long to figure out who they are. And getting back to the subject of moving lines, if I don't think a customer going to beat me LIFETIME I will not move the line off of him, because the last thing you want to do in this business is move a line off of a square and let a wiseguy bet the opposite side. You will only be feeding wiseguys moving lines off of square money. Squares do go on winning streaks but at the end you will get their money longterm. Now if you have all squares and no wiseguys thats a horse of a different color, you don't have to worry about wiseguys taking the squares money if you move the line off of them. Thats why its very, very important to know your customers in this business...rainbow- you have mention it's important to know your customer. when bw or his beards call, you know it's them. i know you don't try to guess which side they'll bet and give off juice or off number. so, what does it mean it helps to know your customer. unless you're referring to those who the line will eventually move, vs. joe public.
Some SHITT never changes... wanti :lock:
You nailed this post to the tee...I just have to ask how many books have gone out of business booking the way these guys advocate?
NONE........Books have gone out of business because of 3 reasons:
1. They are under capitalized (Shouldn't have opened in first place)
2. Books are unable to acquire merchant accounts to process Master Card and Visa
3. Cater to Sharp Players without limiting or utilizing better form of risk management (EGO)
My second one to be sure. How many books cater to US players NOW?
They dont cater to US players because US players cant post up. Hard to run any business wihout cash flow.
1. The US Govt made it illegal with the passing of UEIGA.
2. Prosecuted Neteller founders and destroyed their business
3. Prosecuted several credit card processors.
Nostradamas you aint, your logic is flawed and basically you dont know what the fuck you are talking about.
I just have to ask how many books have gone out of business booking the way these guys advocate?
NONE........Books have gone out of business because of 3 reasons:
1. They are under capitalized (Shouldn't have opened in first place)
2. Books are unable to acquire merchant accounts to process Master Card and Visa
3. Cater to Sharp Players without limiting or utilizing better form of risk management (EGO)
My second one to be sure. How many books cater to US players NOW?
They dont cater to US players because US players cant post up. Hard to run any business wihout cash flow.
1. The US Govt made it illegal with the passing of UEIGA.
2. Prosecuted Neteller founders and destroyed their business
3. Prosecuted several credit card processors.
Nostradamas you aint, your logic is flawed and basically you dont know what the fuck you are talking about.
Volume is the most important thing when booking...how do you become a bookie if you only have 1 or 2 guys and they dont bet the same games lets say one puts $100 on La lakers and another one puts $100 on the Detroit Redwings how do you make money then?
Volume is the most important thing when booking...